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Assessment of impacts of climate change on water resources – a case study of the Great Lakes of North America
1University of Guelph-Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada
2Power and Water University of Technology (PWUT), Tehran, Iran
*now at: University of Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada
Abstract. Historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes are examined using regression analysis and Mann-Kendall statistics, with the result that many of these variables demonstrate statistically significant increases ongoing for a six decade period. Future precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from Global Climate Change Models (GCMs) and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are, however, higher than GCM predictions for Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes in the Great Lakes Basin are likely the result of climate change.
Discussion Paper (PDF, 532 KB) Interactive Discussion (Closed, 5 Comments) Final Revised Paper (HESS)
Citation: McBean, E. and Motiee, H.: Assessment of impacts of climate change on water resources – a case study of the Great Lakes of North America, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 3, 3183-3209, 2006. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager
