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www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/6/6865/2009/
doi:10.5194/hessd-6-6865-2009
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Increase in surface runoff in the central mountains of Mexico: lessons from the past and predictive scenario for the next century
1LTHE – Université Grenoble 1/IRD, G-Inp, CNRS, UJF, France
2Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico
3Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias y Forestales, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Tarímbaro, Michoacán, Mexico
Abstract. The hydrological response of a medium scale mountainous watershed (Mexico) is analysed over half a century. The hydrograph separation highlights an increasing surface runoff contribution since the early 1970's. This increase is attributed to land use changes while the meteorological forcing (rains) remains statistically stable over the same period. As a consequence, the intensity of annual extreme floods has tripled up over the period of survey, increasing flood risks in the region. The paper ends with a climatic projection over the 21st century. The decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature should accentuate the trend engaged since the 1970's by reducing groundwater resources and increasing surface-runoff and associated risks.
Discussion Paper (PDF, 2337 KB) Interactive Discussion (Closed, 3 Comments) Final Revised Paper (HESS)
Citation: Gratiot, N., Duvert, C., Collet, L., Vinson, D., Némery, J., and Saenz-Romero, C.: Increase in surface runoff in the central mountains of Mexico: lessons from the past and predictive scenario for the next century, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 6, 6865-6893, doi:10.5194/hessd-6-6865-2009, 2009. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
