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www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/7/313/2010/
doi:10.5194/hessd-7-313-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling
1EDF – DTG, 21 Avenue de l'Europe, BP 41, 38040 Grenoble Cedex 9, France
2HHLY, CEMAGREF, 3bis quai Chauveau, CP220, 69366 Lyon Cedex 09, France
3EDF – R&D LNHE, 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou, France
Abstract. This paper presents a new probabilistic model for daily rainfall, using sub-sampling based on meteorological circulation. We classified eight typical but contrasted synoptic situations (weather patterns) for France and surrounding areas, using a "bottom-up" approach, i.e. from the shape of the rain field to the synoptic situations described by geopotential fields. These weather patterns (WP) provide a discriminating variable that is consistent with French climatology, and allows seasonal rainfall records to be split into more homogeneous sub-samples. An exponential POT model is used to fit the distribution of each sub-sample. The distribution of the multi-exponential weather patterns (MEWP) is then defined as the composition, for a given season, of all WP sub-sample marginal distributions, weighted by the relative frequency of occurrence of each WP. The MEWP distribution appears able to fit various shapes of distributions using a simple and robust approach for asymptotic behaviour. It is a new contribution to the ongoing debate on the probabilistic tools used to study the asymptotic behaviour of extreme rainfall from observed records. The paper is illustrated throughout with the example of the Lyon (France) rainfall record for the period 1953–2005.
Discussion Paper (PDF, 5227 KB) Interactive Discussion (Closed, 4 Comments) Final Revised Paper (HESS)
Notice on Discussion StatusCitation: Garavaglia, F., Gailhard, J., Paquet, E., Lang, M., Garçon, R., and Bernardara, P.: Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7, 313-344, doi:10.5194/hessd-7-313-2010, 2010. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
