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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/hess-2015-502
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
10 Feb 2016
Review status
A revision of this discussion paper for further review has not been submitted.
Large-scale water scarcity assessment under global changes: insights from a hydroeconomic framework
Noémie Neverre1,2,3, Patrice Dumas1,4, and Hypatia Nassopoulos5 1Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Nogent sur Marne, France
2Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Paris, France
3Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées (ENPC), Champs sur Marne, France
4Centre de coopération International en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), Paris, France
5Ecole des Ingénieurs de la Ville de Paris (EIVP), Paris, France
Abstract. Global changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity issues in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. In this work, we investigate the impacts of reservoirs operation rules based on an economic criterion. We examine whether can they help reduce the costs of water scarcity, and whether they become more relevant under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We develop an original hydroeconomic model able to compare water supply and demand on a large scale, while representing river basin heterogeneity.

On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water inflows to the reservoirs. On the demand side, we focus on the two main sectors of water use: irrigation and domestic sectors. Demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. Coordinated operating rules of the reservoirs are set up, considering spatial and temporal trade-offs. The objective is the maximisation of water benefits.

The methodology is applied to Algeria at the 2050 horizon. Our results show that the supply-demand imbalance and its costs will increase in most Algerian basins under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that the benefits of operating rules based on economic criteria are not unequivocally increased with global changes. In some basins the positive impact of economic prioritisation is higher in future conditions, but in other basins it is higher in historical conditions.

Given its generic nature and low data requirements, the developed framework could be implemented in other regions concerned with water scarcity, or extended to a global coverage.


Citation: Neverre, N., Dumas, P., and Nassopoulos, H.: Large-scale water scarcity assessment under global changes: insights from a hydroeconomic framework, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2015-502, in review, 2016.
Noémie Neverre et al.
Noémie Neverre et al.

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Short summary
Climate and socioeconomic changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity in the Mediterranean region. We develop a model of water supply and demand at large scale and evaluate the impact of global changes on irrigation and municipal water uses. We represent two options for the management of man-made dams and water allocation: without prioritizing between uses or based on the economic benefits of water. In Algeria, the supply-demand imbalance and its cost will increase for most rivers by 2050.
Climate and socioeconomic changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity in the Mediterranean...
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