Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/hess-2015-504
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
15 Jan 2016
Review status
A revision of this discussion paper was accepted for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) and is expected to appear here in due course.
Assessment of extreme flood events in changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
E. Shevnina1,2, E. Kurzeneva1, V. Kovalenko2, and T. Vihma1 1Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 0010 Helsinki, Finland
2Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Malookhtinsky prospect 98, 195196 Sankt-Petersburg, Russia
Abstract. Climate warming has been and is expected to continue faster in the Arctic than at lower latitudes, which generates major challenges for adaptation. Among others, long-term planning of development of socio-economic infrastructure requires climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of extreme flood events. To estimate the cost of facilities and operational risks, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. A stochastic model allowing to simulate the probability density function (PDF) of hydrological variables based on a projected climatology, without modelling hydrological time series, is applied to estimate extreme flood events caused by spring snow melting in the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of modelled and empirical PDFs using historical time series. The PDF parameters of spring flood runoff are assessed in a regional scale under the SRES and RCP climate scenarios for 2010–2039. For the Russian Arctic, an increase of 17–23 \% in the mean values and a decrease of 5–16 \% in the coefficients of variation of the spring flood runoff are expected. Territories are outlined where engineering calculations of the extreme maximum discharges should be corrected to account for the expected climate change. The extreme maximum discharge for a bridge construction over the Nadym River is calculated.

Citation: Shevnina, E., Kurzeneva, E., Kovalenko, V., and Vihma, T.: Assessment of extreme flood events in changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2015-504, in review, 2016.
E. Shevnina et al.
E. Shevnina et al.
E. Shevnina et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 309 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
197 86 26 309 26 30

Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Jan 2016)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Jan 2016)

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 27 Apr 2017
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
This paper presents the stochastic hydrological model allowing to perform climate-based forecast of detrimental hydrological events both in regional and catchment scales. The "alarm" regions, where the risks of flooding is expected to increase are outlined. The identified spatial patterns of trends in extreme floods have importance in the field of urban planning, e.g., regarding the adjustment of social infrastructures such as roads or railways, to future flood extremes.
This paper presents the stochastic hydrological model allowing to perform climate-based forecast...
Share