Real-time forecasting of typhoon inundation extent in a partially-gauged area through the integration of ARX-based models and a geographic information system
Huei-Tau Ouyang1 and Yi-Chun Chen21Department of Civil Engineering, National Ilan University, Yilan city, Yilan County 260, Taiwan 2First River Management Office, Water Resources Agency, Yilan City, Yilan County 260, Taiwan
Received: 15 Aug 2016 – Accepted for review: 13 Sep 2016 – Discussion started: 20 Sep 2016
Abstract. This study presents a methodology for forecasting the extent of inundation and depth of distribution during typhoons in real-time. The proposed approach involves the construction of ARX and ARMAX models capable of predicting water-levels at the locations of on-site gauging stations and representative points located at the outlets of the sub-areas obtained by terrain analysis using a geographic information system. The models are constructed based on historical typhoon data and the results of numerical simulations related to inundation. A database comprising layers of inundation maps related to water-levels in each sub-area based on the assumption of flat-water and the digital elevation model (DEM) of the area were assembled prior to the typhoon. Water-levels during the typhoon are forecast using the constructed models, whereupon inundation sub-maps associated with the forecasted water-levels are extracted from the database. The resulting inundation map is comparable to that obtained using Synthetic Aperture Radar. Processing can be conducted in real-time and requires very little computational resources. This provides valuable lead time in which to conduct efforts aimed at damage mitigation during a typhoon.
Ouyang, H.-T. and Chen, Y.-C.: Real-time forecasting of typhoon inundation extent in a partially-gauged area through the integration of ARX-based models and a geographic information system, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-412, 2016.