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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-496
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
28 Sep 2016
Review status
A revision of this discussion paper was accepted for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) and is expected to appear here in due course.
Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information
Diana Fuentes-Andino1,2, Keith Beven1,3, Sven Halldin1,2, Chong-Yu Xu1,4, José-Eduardo Reynolds1,2, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre1 1Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE-752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
2Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
3Lancaster Environment Center, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK
4Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P O Box 1047, Blindern, NO-0316, Oslo, Norway
Abstract. Prevention and mitigation of floods require information on discharge and extent of inundation, commonly unavailable or uncertain, especially during extreme events. This study was initiated by the devastating flood in Tegucigalpa when Hurricane Mitch struck the city. In this study we hypothesised that it is possible to estimate, in a trustworthy way despite large data uncertainties, this extreme 1998 flood discharge and the extent of the inundations that followed, from a combination of models and post–event measured data. Post–event data collected in 2000 and 2001 were used to estimate discharge peaks, times of peaks and high water marks. These data were used in combination with rain data from two gauges to drive and constrain a combination of well–known models: TOPMODEL, Muskingum–Cunge–Todini routing, and the LISFLOOD–FP hydraulic model. Simulations were performed within the GLUE uncertainty–analysis framework. The model combination predicted peak discharge, times of peaks and more than 90 % of the observed high–water marks within the uncertainty bounds of the evaluation data. This allowed an inundation likelihood map to be produced. Observed high–water marks could not be reproduced at a few locations on the floodplain. These locations are useful to improve model set–up, model structure or post–event data–estimation methods. Rainfall data were of central importance in simulating the times of peak and results would be improved by a better spatial assessment of rainfall, e.g. from satellite data or a denser rain–gauge network. Our study demonstrated that it was possible, considering the uncertainty in the post–event data, to reasonable reproduce the extreme Mitch flood in Tegucigalpa in spite of no hydrometric gauging during the event.

Citation: Fuentes-Andino, D., Beven, K., Halldin, S., Xu, C.-Y., Reynolds, J.-E., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-496, in review, 2016.
Diana Fuentes-Andino et al.
Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
 
SC1: 'Some comments', Aristotelis Tegos, 03 Oct 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
AC1: 'Reply to A. Tegos (SC1)', Diana Fuentes, 12 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
AC2: 'Reply to Referee #1', Diana Fuentes, 12 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC1: 'Less emphasis on the methods and more on the analyses', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Oct 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
AC3: 'Reply to Referee #1', Diana Fuentes, 12 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC2: 'Flood modeling under large data uncertainty within the GLUE framework', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 Oct 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
AC5: 'Reply to Referee #2', Diana Fuentes, 12 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC2: 'Review on "Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information" by D. Fuentes-Andino et al.', Anouk Sprong, 31 Oct 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
AC6: 'Reply to Anouk Sprong (SC2)', Diana Fuentes, 12 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC3: 'Comment on “Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information” by Diana Fuentes-Andino et al. Ilja America', Ilja America, 02 Nov 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
AC7: 'Reply to Ilja America (SC3)', Diana Fuentes, 12 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC4: 'Interactive comment on “Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information” by Diana Fuentes-Andino et al.', Kenechukwu Okoli, 08 Nov 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
AC8: 'Reply to Kenechukwu Okoli (SC4)', Diana Fuentes, 12 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC5: 'Interactive comment on “Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information” by Diana Fuentes-Andino et al.', Timo Kelder, 11 Nov 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
AC9: 'Reply to Timo Kelder (SC5)', Diana Fuentes, 12 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC3: 'Review of "Reproducing an extreme flood with uncertain post-event information"', Anonymous Referee #3, 05 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
AC10: 'Reply to Referee #3', Diana Fuentes, 12 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
AC4: 'Major_revision', Diana Fuentes, 12 Dec 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
Diana Fuentes-Andino et al.
Diana Fuentes-Andino et al.

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Short summary
Reproduction of past floods require information on discharge and flood extent, commonly unavailable or uncertain during extreme events. We explored the possibility to estimate, in a trustworthy way, an extreme flood disaster using post-event information in combination with rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modeling, within an uncertainty analysis framework. Our study demonstrated that, considering the uncertainty in post–event data, it was possible to reasonably reproduce the extreme event.
Reproduction of past floods require information on discharge and flood extent, commonly...
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