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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-126
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
04 Apr 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Impact of ENSO regimes on developing and decaying phase precipitation during rainy season in China
Qing Cao1, Zhenchun Hao1, Feifei Yuan1, Zhenkuan Su1, Ronny Berndtsson2, Jie Hao3, and Tsring Nyima4 1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China
2Department of Water Resources Engineering and Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, Lund, P.O. Box 118, SE-221 00, Sweden
3Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210098, China
4Investigation Bureau of hydrology and water resources in Ali of Tibet Autonomous Region, Tibet, 859000, China
Abstract. This study investigated the influence of five El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) types (i.e., Central Pacific Warming (CPW), Eastern Pacific Cooling (EPC), Eastern Pacific Warming (EPW), conventional ENSO, and ENSO Modoki) on rainy-season precipitation in China. The multi-scale moving t-test was applied to determine the onset and withdrawal of rainy season. Results showed that there is a higher probability for flooding during decaying CPW and EPW phases in most parts of China with a largest precipitation anomaly reaching 30 % above average precipitation. Developing EPW could trigger droughts over large areas in China with 10–30 % lower than average precipitation in most areas. Conventional El Niño in the developing phase had the largest influence on ENSO-related precipitation among developing ENSO and ENSO Modoki regimes. Decaying ENSO also showed larger effect on the occurrence of drought and flood, compared to decaying ENSO Modoki. The difference between rainy-season precipitation under various ENSO regimes may be attributed to the combined influence of anti-cyclone in the western North Pacific and the Indian monsoon. Stronger monsoon and anti-cyclone are associated with enhanced rainy-season precipitation. The results suggest a certain predictability of rainy-season precipitation related to ENSO regimes.

Citation: Cao, Q., Hao, Z., Yuan, F., Su, Z., Berndtsson, R., Hao, J., and Nyima, T.: Impact of ENSO regimes on developing and decaying phase precipitation during rainy season in China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-126, in review, 2017.
Qing Cao et al.
Qing Cao et al.
Qing Cao et al.

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Short summary
This study analysed the rainy-season precipitation in China influenced by various ENSO types. The precipitation anomalies were investigated under different ENSO types, which may be attributed to the combined influence of anti-cyclone in the western North Pacific and the Indian monsoon. The results improve the understanding of linkages between the precipitation and global teleconnection patterns. The results suggest a certain predictability of flood and drought related to different ENSO types.
This study analysed the rainy-season precipitation in China influenced by various ENSO types....
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