Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/hess-2017-136
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
20 Mar 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
A conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic Standardized Anomalies: application in four recent severe drought events in China
Zhenchen Liu1, Guihua Lu1, Hai He1, Zhiyong Wu1, and Jian He2 1College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
2Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, China
Abstract. Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for end water managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering the idea that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we develop a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric/oceanic Standardized Anomalies (SA). Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was firstly applied to drought-related SA of 200 hPa/500 hPa geo-potential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST), respectively. Subsequently, SA-based predictors were built based on the spatial configuration of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric/oceanic SA-based predictors and 3-month SPI (SPI3), calibrated by the simple method of stepwise regression. It is forced by seasonal climate forecast models like the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). It can make seamless drought prediction for operational use after being calibrated year-by-year. Model application during four recent severe drought events in China indicates its good performance at predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Therefore, it can provide some valuable information and is a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management.

Citation: Liu, Z., Lu, G., He, H., Wu, Z., and He, J.: A conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic Standardized Anomalies: application in four recent severe drought events in China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2017-136, in review, 2017.
Zhenchen Liu et al.
Zhenchen Liu et al.
Zhenchen Liu et al.

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Short summary
Process prediction of seasonal drought is the goal of our study. We developed a drought prediction model based on atmospheric/oceanic anomalies. It is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between atmospheric/oceanic anomalies and precipitation anomalies, forced by seasonal climate forecast models. It can predict seasonal drought development very well, despite its weakness in drought severity.
Process prediction of seasonal drought is the goal of our study. We developed a drought...
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