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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-207
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
18 Apr 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Precipitation extremes on multiple time scales – Bartlett–Lewis Rectangular Pulse Model and Intensity–Duration–Frequency curves
Christoph Ritschel, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, D-12165 Berlin, Germany
Abstract. For several hydrological modelling tasks, precipitation time-series with a high (i.e. sub-daily) resolution are indispensable. This data is, however, not always available and thus model simulations are used to compensate. A canonical class of stochastic models for sub-daily precipitation are Poisson-cluster processes, with the Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse model (BLRPM) as a prominent representative. The BLRPM has been shown to well reproduce certain characteristics found in observations. Our focus is on intensity–duration–frequency relationship (IDF), which are of particular interest in risk assessment. Based on a high resolution precipitation time-series (5-min) from Berlin-Dahlem, BLRPM parameters are estimated and IDF curves are obtained on the one hand directly from the observations and on the other hand from BLRPM simulations. Comparing the resulting IDF curves suggests that the BLRPM is able to reproduce main features of IDF statistics across several durations but cannot capture singular events (here an event of magnitude 5 times larger than the second larges event). Here, IDF curves are estimated based on a parametric model for the duration dependence of the scale parameter in the General Extreme Value distribution; this allows to obtain a consistent set of curves over all durations. We use the BLRPM to investigate the validity of this approach based on simulated long time series.

Citation: Ritschel, C., Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U.: Precipitation extremes on multiple time scales – Bartlett–Lewis Rectangular Pulse Model and Intensity–Duration–Frequency curves, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-207, in review, 2017.
Christoph Ritschel et al.
Christoph Ritschel et al.
Christoph Ritschel et al.

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Short summary
A stochastic model for precipitation is used to simulate an observed precipitation series; it is compared to the original series in terms of intensity–duration frequency curves. Basis for the latter curves is a parametric model for the duration-dependence of the underlying extreme value model allowing a consistent estimation of one single duration-dependent distribution using all duration series simultaneously. The stochastic model reproduces the curves except for singular very strong events.
A stochastic model for precipitation is used to simulate an observed precipitation series; it is...
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