Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/hess-2017-227
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
08 May 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Future extreme precipitation intensities based on historic events
Iris Manola1, Bart van den Hurk2,3, Hans De Moel2, and Jeroen Aerts2 1Meteorology and Air Quality, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, the Netherlands
2InstituteforEnvironmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (VU), Amsterdam, the Netherlands
3The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Abstract. In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high impact of precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a future weather scenario. The first method uses an observation-based non-linear relation between the hourly observed summer precipitation and the antecedent dew-point temperature (the Pi-Td relation). The second method simulates the same event by using the convective-permitting NWP model Harmonie, for both present day and future warm conditions. The third method is similar to the first method, but applies a simple linear delta transformation to the historic data by using indicators from The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) '14 climate scenarios. A comparison of the three methods shows comparable intensity changes, ranging from below the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling to a 3 times CC increase per degree of warming. In the NWP model, the position of the events is somewhat different, due to small wind and convection changes, the intensity changes somewhat differ with time, but the total spatial area covered by heavy precipitation does not change with the temperature increase.

The Pi-Td method is simple and time-efficient, compared to numerical models. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies, and for impact analysis, such as flood-risk assessments.


Citation: Manola, I., van den Hurk, B., De Moel, H., and Aerts, J.: Future extreme precipitation intensities based on historic events, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2017-227, in review, 2017.
Iris Manola et al.
Iris Manola et al.
Iris Manola et al.

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Short summary
In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase and form a considerable risk of high impact of precipitation extremes. It would be of interest to investigate how observed extreme precipitation events would look like if they took place in a future, warmer climate. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a future weather scenario.
In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase and form a...
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