the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Frequency Analysis of Extreme Sub-Daily Precipitation under Stationary and Non-Stationary Conditions across Two Contrasting Hydroclimatic Environments
Abstract. Observed sub-daily precipitation intensities from contrasting hydroclimatic environments in the USA are used to evaluate temporal trends and to develop Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves under stationary and non-stationary climatic conditions. Analyses are based on observations from two United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service (ARS) experimental watersheds located in a semi-arid and a temperate environment. We use an Annual Maximum Series (AMS) and a Partial Duration Series (PDS) approach to identify temporal trends in maximum intensities for durations ranging from 5- to 1440-minutes. A Bayesian approach with Monte Carlo techniques is used to incorporate the effect of non-stationary climatic assumptions in the IDF curves. The results show increasing trends in observed AMS sub-daily intensities in both watersheds whereas trends in the PDS observations are mostly positive in the semi-arid site and a mix of positive and negative in the temperate site. Stationary climate assumptions lead to much lower estimated sub-daily intensities than those under non-stationary assumptions with larger absolute differences found for shorter durations and smaller return periods. The risk of failure (R) of a hydraulic structure is increased for non-stationary effects over those of stationary effects, with absolute differences of 25 % for a 100-year return period (T) and a project life (n) of 100 years. The study highlights the importance of considering non-stationarity, due to natural variability or to climate change, in storm design.
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RC1: 'Referee report', Francesco Serinaldi, 03 Aug 2017
- AC1: 'Response to Reviewer Comments', Eleonora Demaria, 28 Sep 2017
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RC2: 'Paper review', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Aug 2017
- AC2: 'Response to Reviewer's comments', Eleonora Demaria, 28 Sep 2017
-
RC1: 'Referee report', Francesco Serinaldi, 03 Aug 2017
- AC1: 'Response to Reviewer Comments', Eleonora Demaria, 28 Sep 2017
-
RC2: 'Paper review', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Aug 2017
- AC2: 'Response to Reviewer's comments', Eleonora Demaria, 28 Sep 2017
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Cited
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Sub-Daily Rainfall Intensity Extremes: Evaluating Suitable Indices at Australian Arid and Wet Tropical Observing Sites D. Dunkerley 10.3390/w11122616
- Evolutionary analysis of rainstorm momentum and non-stationary variating patterns in response to climatic changes across diverse terrains C. Huang & N. Hsu 10.1038/s41598-024-53939-8
- Modeling of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall in Somalia J. Mohamed & M. Adam 10.1007/s40808-022-01363-0