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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-262
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
08 May 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers. A new tool to analyse management alternatives under uncertainty in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer
David Pulido-Velazquez1,2, Arianna Renau-Pruñonosa3, Carlos Llopis-Albert4, Ignacio Morell3, Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara1, and Javier Senent-Aparicio2 1Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Granada, Spain
2Universidad Católica de Murcia, Murcia, Spain
3Jaume I University, Castellón, Spain
4Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain
Abstract. Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the fresh water-salt water equilibrium. In this sense Climate change (CC) and Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over a 75 km2 in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several Regional Climatic Models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigations requirements and irrigation returns models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feeds it), and a density dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential GC scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows of the hydraulically-connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and Sea Level Rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable to improve our knowledge about the aquifer and so comprise a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future global change conditions and their impacts. The results show that CC and LULC scenarios produce significant increase in the variability of flow budget components and in the chloride salinity concentration. They also show a low sensitivity to the SLR scenarios, especially in terms of hydraulic head.

Citation: Pulido-Velazquez, D., Renau-Pruñonosa, A., Llopis-Albert, C., Morell, I., Collados-Lara, A.-J., and Senent-Aparicio, J.: Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers. A new tool to analyse management alternatives under uncertainty in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-262, in review, 2017.
David Pulido-Velazquez et al.
David Pulido-Velazquez et al.
David Pulido-Velazquez et al.

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Short summary
We have developed a method to assess hydrological impacts of potential future potential global change (GC) scenarios in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. Quantity and quality issues are simultaneously considered. It includes the generation of potential GC scenarios involving different sources of uncertainty and an integrated modelling framework to assess impacts. It is valuable tool to improve our aquifer knowledge and to help in the analysis of management strategies.
We have developed a method to assess hydrological impacts of potential future potential global...
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