Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/hess-2017-58
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
13 Feb 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
A Framework for Advancing Streamflow and Water Allocation Forecasts in the Elqui Valley, Chile
Justin Delorit1, Edmundo Cristian Gonzalez Ortuya2, and Paul Block1 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, 53706, United States
2Department of Industrial and Civil Engineering, University of La Serena, La Serena, 1700000, Chile
Abstract. In many semi-arid regions, agriculture, energy, municipal, and environmental demands often stress available water supplies. Such is the case in the Elqui River valley of northern Chile, which draws on a limited capacity reservoir and annually variable snowmelt. With infrastructure investments often deferred or delayed, water managers are forced to address demand-based allocation strategies, particularly challenging in dry years. This is often realized through a reduction in the volume associated with each water right, applied across all water rights holders. Skillful season-ahead streamflow forecasts have the potential to inform managers with an indication of likely future conditions upon which to set the annual water right volume and thereby guide reservoir allocations. This work evaluates season-ahead statistical prediction models of October-January (austral growing season) streamflow at multiple lead times associated with manager and user decision points, and link predictions with a simple reservoir allocation tool.

Citation: Delorit, J., Gonzalez Ortuya, E. C., and Block, P.: A Framework for Advancing Streamflow and Water Allocation Forecasts in the Elqui Valley, Chile, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2017-58, in review, 2017.
Justin Delorit et al.
Justin Delorit et al.
Justin Delorit et al.

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Short summary
This work provides forecasts of water supply for the semi-arid, Elqui River Valley, Chile at periods prior to the October - January growing season. Forecasts are constructed provide water rights holders, whose allocations are subject to annual change, with an advanced indication of expected allocations. Forecasts, based on global and local indicators, are best suited to provide an initial indication of allocation category (above-, near-, below-normal) in May, and are quantified in September.
This work provides forecasts of water supply for the semi-arid, Elqui River Valley, Chile at...
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