Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-70
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
21 Feb 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia
Ying Zhang1, Semu Moges2, and Paul Block1 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, 53706, USA
2School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, 1000, Ethiopia
Abstract. Prediction of seasonal precipitation can provide actionable information to guide management of various sectoral activities. For instance, it is often translated into hydrological forecasts for better water resources management. However, many studies assume homogeneity in precipitation across an entire study region, which may prove ineffective for operational and local-level decisions, particularly for locations with high spatial variability. This study proposes advancing local-level seasonal precipitation predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through objective cluster analysis, for western Ethiopia. To our knowledge, this is the first study predicting seasonal precipitation at high resolution in this region, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to precipitation variability given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited water resources infrastructure. The combination of objective cluster analysis, spatially high-resolution prediction of seasonal precipitation, and a modeling structure spanning statistical and dynamical approaches makes clear advances in prediction skill and resolution, as compared with previous studies.

Citation: Zhang, Y., Moges, S., and Block, P.: Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-70, in review, 2017.
Ying Zhang et al.
Ying Zhang et al.
Ying Zhang et al.

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