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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-7327-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
03 Aug 2015
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript for further review has not been submitted.
Future changes in flash flood frequency and intensity of the Tha Di River (Thailand) based on rainfall–runoff modeling and advanced delta change scaling
S. Hilgert, A. Wagner, and S. Fuchs Institute for Water and River Basin Management (IWG), Department Aquatic Environmental Engineering (ISWW), Karlsruhe Institute for Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Abstract. As a consequence of climate change, extreme and flood-causing precipitation events are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, especially in today's high-precipitation areas. During the north-east monsoon seasons, Nakhon Si Thammarat in southern Thailand is flash-flooded every 2.22 years on average. This study investigates frequency and intensity of harmful discharges of the Tha Di River regarding the IPCC emission scenarios A2 and B2. The regional climate model (RCM) PRECIS was transformed using the advanced delta change (ADC) method. The hydrologic response model HBV-Light was calibrated to the catchment and supplied with ADC-scaled daily precipitation and temperature data for 2010–2089. Under the A2 (B2) scenario, the flood threshold exceedance frequency on average increases by 133 % (decreases by 10 %), average flood intensity increases by 3 % (decreases by 2 %) and the annual top five discharge peaks intensities increase by 46 % (decrease by 5 %). Yearly precipitation sums increase by 30 % (10 %) towards the end of the century. The A2 scenario predicts a precipitation increase during the rainy season, which intensifies flood events; while increases projected exclusively for the dry season are not expected to cause floods. Retention volume demand of past events was calculated to be up to 12 × 106 m3. Flood risks are staying at high levels under the B2 scenario or increase dramatically under the A2 scenario. Results show that the RCM scaling process is inflicted with systematic biases but is crucial to investigate small, mountainous catchments. Improvement of scaling techniques should therefore accompany the development towards high-resolution climate models.

Citation: Hilgert, S., Wagner, A., and Fuchs, S.: Future changes in flash flood frequency and intensity of the Tha Di River (Thailand) based on rainfall–runoff modeling and advanced delta change scaling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-7327-2015, in review, 2015.
S. Hilgert et al.
S. Hilgert et al.

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Short summary
HBV-Light was calibrated and validated with simultaneously recorded discharge and precipitation data of the years 1989–2009. Results show, that the raw Regional Climate Model series overestimate precipitation sums by the factor of two or more. HBV modeling shows an increase for the yearly average cumulative precipitation until the end of the century between 10-30%. The dry season is likely to become longer and drier.
HBV-Light was calibrated and validated with simultaneously recorded discharge and precipitation...
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