Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
16 Dec 2015
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal HESS but the revision was not accepted.
Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains like those of storm Desmond in the UK – an event attribution study in near-real time
Abstract. On 4–6 December 2015, the storm "Desmond" caused very heavy rainfall in northern England and Scotland, which led to widespread flooding. Here we provide an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing northern England and southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis is based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agree that the effect of climate change is positive, making precipitation events like this about 40 % more likely, with a provisional 2.5–97.5 % confidence interval of 5–80 %.
How to cite. van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F. E. L., Haustein, K., and Cullen, H.: Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains like those of storm Desmond in the UK – an event attribution study in near-real time, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 12, 13197–13216, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015, 2015.
Download & links
Download & links
- Preprint
(806 KB) - Metadata XML
- BibTeX
- EndNote
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
- Printer-friendly version
- Supplement
-
RC C5722: 'Referee report', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 Dec 2015
-
AC C6321: 'Reply to anonymous referee #1', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 24 Jan 2016
-
AC C6321: 'Reply to anonymous referee #1', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 24 Jan 2016
-
RC C5802: 'Reviewer comments on HESS-2015-534', Anonymous Referee #2, 23 Dec 2015
-
AC C6356: 'Reply to Review #2', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 26 Jan 2016
-
AC C6356: 'Reply to Review #2', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 26 Jan 2016
-
RC C5898: 'valuable, but somewhat unclear manuscript', Anonymous Referee #3, 04 Jan 2016
-
AC C7113: 'Reply to review #3', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 29 Jun 2016
-
AC C7113: 'Reply to review #3', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 29 Jun 2016
-
RC C6012: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #4, 07 Jan 2016
-
AC C7121: 'Reply to review #4', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 30 Jun 2016
-
AC C7121: 'Reply to review #4', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 30 Jun 2016
-
RC C6110: 'Reviewer comments for hess-2015-534', Anonymous Referee #5, 12 Jan 2016
-
AC C7126: 'Reply to review #5', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 30 Jun 2016
-
AC C7126: 'Reply to review #5', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 30 Jun 2016
-
SC C6203: 'Clarification sought on text on trends in observed extremes', Richard Jones, 18 Jan 2016
-
AC C6332: 'Reply to short comment by Richard Jones', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 24 Jan 2016
-
AC C6332: 'Reply to short comment by Richard Jones', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 24 Jan 2016
-
RC C6208: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #6, 18 Jan 2016
-
RC C6250: 'Corrected version of the above review', Anonymous Referee #6, 21 Jan 2016
-
AC C7136: 'Reply to review #6', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 01 Jul 2016
-
AC C7136: 'Reply to review #6', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 01 Jul 2016
-
RC C6250: 'Corrected version of the above review', Anonymous Referee #6, 21 Jan 2016
-
RC C6212: 'Referee report', Anonymous Referee #7, 19 Jan 2016
-
AC C7146: 'Reply to review #7', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 01 Jul 2016
-
AC C7146: 'Reply to review #7', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 01 Jul 2016
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
- Printer-friendly version
- Supplement
-
RC C5722: 'Referee report', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 Dec 2015
-
AC C6321: 'Reply to anonymous referee #1', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 24 Jan 2016
-
AC C6321: 'Reply to anonymous referee #1', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 24 Jan 2016
-
RC C5802: 'Reviewer comments on HESS-2015-534', Anonymous Referee #2, 23 Dec 2015
-
AC C6356: 'Reply to Review #2', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 26 Jan 2016
-
AC C6356: 'Reply to Review #2', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 26 Jan 2016
-
RC C5898: 'valuable, but somewhat unclear manuscript', Anonymous Referee #3, 04 Jan 2016
-
AC C7113: 'Reply to review #3', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 29 Jun 2016
-
AC C7113: 'Reply to review #3', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 29 Jun 2016
-
RC C6012: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #4, 07 Jan 2016
-
AC C7121: 'Reply to review #4', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 30 Jun 2016
-
AC C7121: 'Reply to review #4', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 30 Jun 2016
-
RC C6110: 'Reviewer comments for hess-2015-534', Anonymous Referee #5, 12 Jan 2016
-
AC C7126: 'Reply to review #5', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 30 Jun 2016
-
AC C7126: 'Reply to review #5', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 30 Jun 2016
-
SC C6203: 'Clarification sought on text on trends in observed extremes', Richard Jones, 18 Jan 2016
-
AC C6332: 'Reply to short comment by Richard Jones', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 24 Jan 2016
-
AC C6332: 'Reply to short comment by Richard Jones', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 24 Jan 2016
-
RC C6208: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #6, 18 Jan 2016
-
RC C6250: 'Corrected version of the above review', Anonymous Referee #6, 21 Jan 2016
-
AC C7136: 'Reply to review #6', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 01 Jul 2016
-
AC C7136: 'Reply to review #6', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 01 Jul 2016
-
RC C6250: 'Corrected version of the above review', Anonymous Referee #6, 21 Jan 2016
-
RC C6212: 'Referee report', Anonymous Referee #7, 19 Jan 2016
-
AC C7146: 'Reply to review #7', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 01 Jul 2016
-
AC C7146: 'Reply to review #7', Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, 01 Jul 2016
Viewed
Total article views: 4,461 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 16 Dec 2015)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,092 | 1,268 | 101 | 4,461 | 88 | 107 |
- HTML: 3,092
- PDF: 1,268
- XML: 101
- Total: 4,461
- BibTeX: 88
- EndNote: 107
Cited
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Flood- and Weather-Damaged Homes and Mental Health: An Analysis Using England’s Mental Health Survey H. Graham et al. 10.3390/ijerph16183256
- Nonstationary extreme value analysis for event attribution combining climate models and observations Y. Robin & A. Ribes 10.5194/ascmo-6-205-2020
- Different Ways of Framing Event Attribution Questions: The Example of Warm and Wet Winters in the United Kingdom Similar to 2015/16 N. Christidis et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0464.1
- Spatiotemporal Variations and Climatological Trends in Precipitation Indices in Shaanxi Province, China S. Wang et al. 10.3390/atmos13050744
- Taking climate model evaluation to the next level V. Eyring et al. 10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
- Investigating event‐specific drought attribution using self‐organizing maps L. Harrington et al. 10.1002/2016JD025602
- Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change L. Wilcox et al. 10.1007/s00382-017-3822-7
- Describing the Relationship between a Weather Event and Climate Change: A New Statistical Approach A. Ribes et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0217.1
- Multi-method attribution analysis of extreme precipitation in Boulder, Colorado J. Eden et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124009
- The impact of flooding disruption on the spatial distribution of commuter's income P. Kilgarriff et al. 10.1080/21606544.2018.1502098
- A Perfect Storm? The collapse of Lancaster's critical infrastructure networks following intense rainfall on 4/5 December 2015 E. Ferranti et al. 10.1002/wea.2907
- Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment T. Matthews et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8
- The winter 2015/2016 floods in the UK: a hydrological appraisal L. Barker et al. 10.1002/wea.2822
- Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change K. van der Wiel et al. 10.5194/hess-21-897-2017
- Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective B. Clarke et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d
- How Much Information Is Required to Well Constrain Local Estimates of Future Precipitation Extremes? C. Li et al. 10.1029/2018EF001001
- Scrambled systems: the (im)mobilities of ‘storm Desmond’ S. Savitzky 10.1080/17450101.2018.1466505
- Regional decision-makers as potential users of Extreme Weather Event Attribution - Case studies from the German Baltic Sea coast and the Greater Paris area M. Schwab et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2017.09.001
- Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond—a real-time event attribution revisited F. Otto et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9663
- Defining the hundred year flood: A Bayesian approach for using historic data to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency estimates B. Parkes & D. Demeritt 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.07.025
- Modelling flooding due to runoff from spoil heaps during heavy rainfall M. Bedford et al. 10.1080/25726668.2022.2143645
- Flood event attribution and damage estimation using national‐scale grid‐based modelling: Winter 2013/2014 in Great Britain A. Kay et al. 10.1002/joc.5721
- Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change L. Harrington 10.1007/s10584-017-1906-3
- German tanks and historical records: the estimation of the time coverage of ungauged extreme events I. Prosdocimi 10.1007/s00477-017-1418-8
Saved
Latest update: 18 Apr 2024
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), R&D Models, De Bilt, the Netherlands
F. E. L. Otto
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
K. Haustein
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
H. Cullen
Climate Central, Princeton, USA
Short summary
On 4–6 December 2015, the storm 'Desmond' caused very heavy rainfall in northern England and Scotland, which led to widespread flooding. We provide an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of precipitation events like this. We use three independent methods of extreme event attribution based on observations and two climate models. All methods agree that the effect of climate change is positive, making events like this about 40% (5–80%) more likely.
On 4–6 December 2015, the storm 'Desmond' caused very heavy rainfall in northern England and...