Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-412
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
20 Sep 2016
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). A final paper in HESS is not foreseen.
Real-time forecasting of typhoon inundation extent in a partially-gauged area through the integration of ARX-based models and a geographic information system
Huei-Tau Ouyang1 and Yi-Chun Chen2 1Department of Civil Engineering, National Ilan University, Yilan city, Yilan County 260, Taiwan
2First River Management Office, Water Resources Agency, Yilan City, Yilan County 260, Taiwan
Abstract. This study presents a methodology for forecasting the extent of inundation and depth of distribution during typhoons in real-time. The proposed approach involves the construction of ARX and ARMAX models capable of predicting water-levels at the locations of on-site gauging stations and representative points located at the outlets of the sub-areas obtained by terrain analysis using a geographic information system. The models are constructed based on historical typhoon data and the results of numerical simulations related to inundation. A database comprising layers of inundation maps related to water-levels in each sub-area based on the assumption of flat-water and the digital elevation model (DEM) of the area were assembled prior to the typhoon. Water-levels during the typhoon are forecast using the constructed models, whereupon inundation sub-maps associated with the forecasted water-levels are extracted from the database. The resulting inundation map is comparable to that obtained using Synthetic Aperture Radar. Processing can be conducted in real-time and requires very little computational resources. This provides valuable lead time in which to conduct efforts aimed at damage mitigation during a typhoon.

Citation: Ouyang, H.-T. and Chen, Y.-C.: Real-time forecasting of typhoon inundation extent in a partially-gauged area through the integration of ARX-based models and a geographic information system, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-412, 2016.
Huei-Tau Ouyang and Yi-Chun Chen
Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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SC1: 'review comments', SHANG-SHU SHIH, 05 Oct 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC1: 'Questionable modelling assumptions', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Oct 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
Huei-Tau Ouyang and Yi-Chun Chen
Huei-Tau Ouyang and Yi-Chun Chen

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Short summary
A methodology integrating ARX-based models with a GIS for the forecasting of typhoon inundation extent is proposed. Sub-catchments are identified by using HEC-GeoHMS and the flat water assumption is employed to simulate the inundation level within each sub-catchment. Modellings are based on typhoon records as well as results from numerical simulations. Real-time forecasting of inundation extent is realized by water-level prediction incorporating with pre-constructed inundation maps.
A methodology integrating ARX-based models with a GIS for the forecasting of typhoon inundation...
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