Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-690
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-690
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
13 Jan 2017
Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.
Climate change impacts on hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile
Abstract. This study examines the projections of hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile (∼ 30–40 S). We have used daily precipitation and temperature data based on observations to drive and validate the VIC macro-scale hydrological model in the region of interest at a 0.25 × 0.25 degree resolution. Historical (1960–2005) and projected, following the RCP8.5 scenario (2006–2099), daily precipitation and temperatures from 26 CMIP5 climate models are bias corrected and used to drive the VIC model to obtain regional hydroclimate projections. Following the robust drying and warming shown by CMIP5 models in this region, the VIC model simulations indicate decreases in annual runoff of about 40 % by the end of the century, larger that the projected precipitation decreases (up to 30 %). Center timing of runoff shifts to earlier dates, 3–5 weeks by the end of the century. The Andes snowpack is projected to be less than half of the reference period by mid-century. The projected hydroclimatic regime is also expected to increase the severity and frequency of extreme events. The probability of having extended droughts, such as the recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015), increases to up to 5 events/100 years. On the other hand, probability density function of annual maximum daily runoff indicates an increase in the frequency of flood events. The estimated return periods of annual maximum runoff events depict more drastic changes and increase in the flood risk as longer return periods are considered (e.g. 25-yr and 50-yr).
How to cite. Bozkurt, D., Rojas, M., Boisier, J. P., and Valdivieso, J.: Climate change impacts on hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-690, 2017.
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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SC1: 'Some suggestions for Bozkurt et al.', Pablo Mendoza, 06 Feb 2017
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AC1: 'Response to SC1', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
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AC1: 'Response to SC1', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
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RC1: 'Referee Comments, hess-2016-690', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Feb 2017
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AC2: 'Response to RC1', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
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AC2: 'Response to RC1', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
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RC2: 'Review Bozkurt et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Feb 2017
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AC3: 'Response to RC2', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
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AC3: 'Response to RC2', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
- Printer-friendly version
- Supplement
-
SC1: 'Some suggestions for Bozkurt et al.', Pablo Mendoza, 06 Feb 2017
-
AC1: 'Response to SC1', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
-
AC1: 'Response to SC1', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
-
RC1: 'Referee Comments, hess-2016-690', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Feb 2017
-
AC2: 'Response to RC1', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
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AC2: 'Response to RC1', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
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RC2: 'Review Bozkurt et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Feb 2017
-
AC3: 'Response to RC2', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
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AC3: 'Response to RC2', Deniz Bozkurt, 04 Apr 2017
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Latest update: 17 Apr 2024
Deniz Bozkurt
Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
Maisa Rojas
Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
Juan Pablo Boisier
Center for Climate and Resilience Research, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
Jonás Valdivieso
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
Short summary
In this study, historical (1960–2005) and projected, following the RCP8.5 scenario (2006–2099), daily precipitation and temperatures from 26 CMIP5 climate models are bias corrected and used to drive the VIC model in order to obtain regional hydroclimate projections. Our study highlights that the robust drying and warming conditions are expected to increase the severity and frequency of extreme events such as recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015) in this densely populated region in Chile.
In this study, historical (1960–2005) and projected, following the RCP8.5 scenario (2006–2099),...