Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-238
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
19 May 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of this manuscript was accepted for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) and is expected to appear here in due course.
Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes
Kevin Sene, Wlodek Tych, and Keith Beven Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, United Kingdom
Abstract. In seasonal flow forecasting applications, one factor which can help predictability is a significant hydrological response time between rainfall and flows. On account of storage influences, large lakes therefore provide a useful test case although, due to the spatial scales involved, there are a number of modelling challenges related to data availability and understanding the individual components in the water balance. Here some possible model structures are investigated using a 10 range of stochastic regression and transfer function techniques with additional insights gained from simple analytical approximations. The methods were evaluated using records for two of the largest lakes in the world – Lake Malawi and Lake Victoria – with forecast skill demonstrated several months ahead using water balance models formulated in terms of net inflows. In both cases slight improvements were obtained for lead times up to 4–5 months from including climate indices in the data assimilation component. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relevance of the results to operational flow 15 forecasting systems for other large lakes.

Citation: Sene, K., Tych, W., and Beven, K.: Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-238, in review, 2017.
Kevin Sene et al.
Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
 
RC1: 'Comment', Kolbjorn Engeland, 22 Jun 2017 Printer-friendly Version 
AC1: 'Please see attached file', Kevin Sene, 07 Jul 2017 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
RC2: 'Please find my review attached', Wim Thiery, 09 Jul 2017 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
Kevin Sene et al.
Kevin Sene et al.

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Short summary
The theme of the paper is exploration of the potential for seasonal flow forecasting for large lakes using a range of stochastic transfer function techniques with additional insights gained from simple analytical approximations. The methods were evaluated using records for two of the largest lakes in the world. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relevance of the results to operational flow forecasting systems for other large lakes.
The theme of the paper is exploration of the potential for seasonal flow forecasting for large...
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