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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-388
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
17 Jul 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Spatio-temporal trends in observed and downscaled precipitation over Ganga Basin
Himanshu Arora1, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha2, Wouter Buytaert3, Gujjunadu Suryaprakash Kaushika1, and Chetan Sharma1 1Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, India
2Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, 247667, India
3Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, U.K.
Abstract. This paper focuses on the spatio-temporal trends of precipitation over the Ganga Basin in India for over 2 centuries. Trends in precipitation amounts are detected using observed data for historical period in 20th century and using downscaled precipitation data from 37 GCMs for 21st century. The ranking of 37 GCMs (from CMIP5 archive) is done employing a statistics based skill score. The best ranked GCM output is then bias corrected with observed precipitation prior to further analysis. The direction and magnitude of trend in annual and seasonal precipitation series is determined using Mann Kendall’s test statistic (ZMK) and Thiel Sen’s Slope estimator (β). The plots depicting the spatial variation of ZMK and β are prepared which provides a comprehensive inter-scenario comparison of spatio-temporal trends in precipitation series. Highly non-uniform spatio-temporal trends are detected for observed precipitation series. It is observed that the precipitation for annual and southwest monsoon season is indicating a rising trend for all future emission scenarios in the region adjacent to Himalayas (northeast side of study area) but shows falling trends in the plains away from the Himalayas. Insignificant trends are observed in pre-monsoon and winter season precipitation. An inter-emission-scenario comparison shows that for higher emission scenarios the annual and southwest monsoon precipitation is showing rising trends with increasing spatial dominance i.e. the area under rising trends increases as we observe it from low to high emission scenarios.

Citation: Arora, H., Ojha, C. S. P., Buytaert, W., Kaushika, G. S., and Sharma, C.: Spatio-temporal trends in observed and downscaled precipitation over Ganga Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-388, in review, 2017.
Himanshu Arora et al.
Himanshu Arora et al.
Himanshu Arora et al.

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Short summary
In many agrarian countries (like India), the agricultural practices are usually rainfall dependent. Therefore keeping the water budget into account, precipitation being an important component must be analysed thoroughly for its occurrence and amount. The analysis of trends can provide an insight in understanding the possible impacts in future, which can assist living beings to adapt and cope up with changing climate and hydrological cycle.
In many agrarian countries (like India), the agricultural practices are usually rainfall...
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