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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-389
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
14 Jul 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary reservoir under the differently constructed weather scenarios
Alexander Gelfan, Vsevolod Moreydo, and Yury Motovilov Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 3 Gubkina str., 119333 Moscow, Russia
Abstract. Development and verification of the long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt water inflow into the Cheboksary reservoir – one of the eleven major river reservoirs of the Volga-Kama Reservoir Cascade, are described. The used forecasting procedure is based on a combination of semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG that allows for ensemble calculation of inflow hydrographs with two types of weather ensembles for the lead-time period: (1) observed weather data constructed on the basis of the ESP methodology and (2) synthetic weather data simulated by a weather generator. Ensemble forecasts represented both in deterministic and probability forms were verified by producing hindcasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary reservoir for 35 seasons in 1982–2016 from the 1st of April for 3 months ahead. Four inflow characteristics were forecasted: volume and maximum discharge of the inflow, as well as amount of days with inflow above two specified thresholds. Results of operational forecast of the recent freshet of 2017 are additionally presented. We found that statistical distributions of the forecasted ensembles calculated under both types of weather scenarios are very close to each other. However, confidence intervals of the forecast statistics is much larger for the ESP-based ensemble. Sensitivity of the forecast performance to changes in the forecast horizon and issue date is analyzed and so-called forecastability maps are presented as useful tool for such analysis.

Citation: Gelfan, A., Moreydo, V., and Motovilov, Y.: Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary reservoir under the differently constructed weather scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-389, in review, 2017.
Alexander Gelfan et al.
Alexander Gelfan et al.
Alexander Gelfan et al.

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Short summary
We describe a forecasting procedure that is based on a combination of semi-distributed hydrological model with two types of weather ensembles for the lead-time period: observed weather data constructed on the basis of the ESP methodology and synthetic weather data simulated by a weather generator. We show Forecastability map and suggest it as a useful tool to analyse sensitivity of the forecast performance to changes in the forecast horizon.
We describe a forecasting procedure that is based on a combination of semi-distributed...
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