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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-472
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
11 Sep 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Hydro-stochastic interpolation coupling with Budyko approach for spatial prediction of mean annual runoff
Ning Qiu1,2, Xi Chen1,2, Qi Hu3, Jintao Liu1,2, Richao Huang1,2, and Man Gao1,2 1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln NE 68583, U. S.
Abstract. Hydro-stochastic interpolation method based on traditional block-kriging has often been used to predict mean annual runoff in river basins. A caveat in this method is that the statistic technique provides little physical insight on relationships of the external forcing of climate and landscape and basin runoff. In this study, the spatial runoff is decomposed into a deterministic trend and stochastic fluctuations around it. The former is described by the Budyko method (Fu's equation) and the latter by hydro-stochastic interpolation. The coupled method of stochastic interpolation and the Budyko method is applied to interpolate spatial runoff in the Huaihe River basin of China, based on outlet streamflow and climate data at 40 sub-basins. Results show that the coupled method significantly improves spatial interpolation accuracy of mean annual runoff. The prediction errors from the coupled method are much smaller than that from the respective predictions by the Budyko scheme and the hydro-stochastic interpolation. The cross-validation outcome of the determination efficient, Rcv2, from the coupled method is 0.93, much larger than 0.81 and 0.54 from the Budyko method and the hydro-stochastic interpolation, respectively. The prediction from the coupled method describes accurately the runoff distribution in the Huaihe River basin. In comparison, predictions from the Budyko method and from the hydro-stochastic interpolation show substantial overestimate of low runoff and underestimate of high runoff. These comparison results support that the coupled hydro-stochastic interpolation with the Budyko method offers an effective and accurate way in spatial interpolation of mean annual runoff.

Citation: Qiu, N., Chen, X., Hu, Q., Liu, J., Huang, R., and Gao, M.: Hydro-stochastic interpolation coupling with Budyko approach for spatial prediction of mean annual runoff, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-472, in review, 2017.
Ning Qiu et al.
Ning Qiu et al.
Ning Qiu et al.

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Short summary
In the paper, spatial runoff is decomposed into deterministic and stochastic components which are described by Budyko method and hydro-stochastic interpolation. The coupled hydro-stochastic interpolation we proposed is applied to improve spatial runoff interpolation accuracy, which offers an effective and accurate way in spatial variation analyzing of the hydrological variables. We are very grateful to all editors and reviewers for their efforts to help us improve the quality of the manuscript.
In the paper, spatial runoff is decomposed into deterministic and stochastic components which...
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