Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-49
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
14 Mar 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of this manuscript was accepted for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) and is expected to appear here in due course.
Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate changes for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles
Antoine Colmet-Daage1,2,3, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez1, Sophie Ricci1, Cécile Llovel2, Valérie Borrell Estupina3, Pere Quintana-Seguí4, Maria Carmen Llasat5, and Eric Servat6 1CECI, CERFACS – CNRS TOULOUSE, Toulouse, France
2WSP France, Toulouse, France
3Hydrosciences Montpellier, Univ. Montpellier, Montpellier, France
4Observatori de l ’Ebre Fundació, Tarragona, Spain
5Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
6Institut Montpelliérain de l’Eau et de l’Environnement – IRD, Montpellier, France
Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed over high resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, the Lez and the Aude located in France, and the Muga, located in northeastern Spain and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over past period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over past period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the last part of the 21th century.

Citation: Colmet-Daage, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Ricci, S., Llovel, C., Borrell Estupina, V., Quintana-Seguí, P., Llasat, M. C., and Servat, E.: Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate changes for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-49, in review, 2017.
Antoine Colmet-Daage et al.
Antoine Colmet-Daage et al.

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