Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-527
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
04 Sep 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe
Fredrik Wetterhall and Francesca Di Giuseppe European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading ,UK
Abstract. Two different systems provide long range forecasts at ECMWF. On the sub-seasonal time scale, ECMWF issues an extended-range ensemble prediction system (ENS-ER) which runs a 46-day forecast integration issued twice weekly. On longer time scales the current seasonal forecasting system (SYS4) produces a 7-month outlook starting from the first of each month. SYS4 uses an older model version and has lower spatial and temporal resolution than ENS-ER. Given the substantial differences between the ENS-ER and the SYS4 configurations and the difficulties of creating a seamless integration, applications that rely on weather forcing as input such as the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) often follow the route of the creation of two separate systems for different forecast horizons. This study evaluates the benefit of a seamless integration of the two systems for hydrological applications and shows that the benefit of the new seamless system when compared to the seasonal forecast can be attributed to (1) the use of a more recent model version in the sub-seasonal range (first 46 days) and (2) the much more frequent updates of the meteorological forecast.

Citation: Wetterhall, F. and Di Giuseppe, F.: The benefit of seamless forecasts for hydrological predictions over Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-527, in review, 2017.
Fredrik Wetterhall and Francesca Di Giuseppe
Fredrik Wetterhall and Francesca Di Giuseppe
Fredrik Wetterhall and Francesca Di Giuseppe

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Short summary
This study aims to bridge the gap between water resources forecasts on the short range (days) up to the long-range (seasonal) time scale. Applications of such a system is typically the waterpower industry, river and lake transports and water resources management. The study uses a new meteorological forecast product combined with a hydrological model to predict river discharge over the major European river basins. The results show an improvement in comparison with the current system.
This study aims to bridge the gap between water resources forecasts on the short range (days) up...
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