Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-147
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
16 Apr 2018
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Flood-Related Extreme Precipitation in Southwestern Germany: Development of a Two-Dimensional Stochastic Precipitation Model
Florian Ehmele1 and Michael Kunz1,2 1Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany
2Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), KIT – Karlsruhe, Germany
Abstract. Various application fields, such as insurance industry risk assessments for the design of flood protection systems, require reliable precipitation statistics in high spatial resolution, including estimates for events with high return periods. Observations from point stations, however, lack of spatial representativeness, especially over complex terrain, and do not reliably represent the heavy tail of the distribution function. This paper presents a new method for stochastically simulating precipitation fields based on a linear theory of orographic precipitation and additional functions that consider synoptically driven rainfall and embedded convection in a simplified way. The model is initialized by various statistical distribution functions describing prevailing atmospheric conditions, such as wind vector, moisture content, or stability, estimated from radiosonde observations for a limited sample of the 200 strongest rainfall events observed.

The model is applied for the stochastic simulation of heavy rainfall over the complex terrain of Southwest Germany. It is shown that the model, despite its simplicity, yields reliable precipitation fields. Differences between observed and simulated rainfall statistics are small, being in the order of only ±10 % for return periods of up to 1000 years.

Citation: Ehmele, F. and Kunz, M.: Flood-Related Extreme Precipitation in Southwestern Germany: Development of a Two-Dimensional Stochastic Precipitation Model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-147, in review, 2018.
Florian Ehmele and Michael Kunz
Florian Ehmele and Michael Kunz
Florian Ehmele and Michael Kunz

Viewed

Total article views: 88 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
69 16 3 88 1 1

Views and downloads (calculated since 16 Apr 2018)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 16 Apr 2018)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 88 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

Thereof 85 with geography defined and 3 with unknown origin.

Country # Views %
  • 1

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 20 Apr 2018
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
The risk estimation of precipitation events with high recurrence periods is difficult due to the limited time scale with meteorological observations and homogeneous distribution of rain gauges, especially in mountainous terrain. In this study a spatially highly resolved analytical model, designed for stochastic simulations of flood-related precipitation, is developed and applied to an investigation area in Germany but transferable to other areas. High conformity with observations are found.
The risk estimation of precipitation events with high recurrence periods is difficult due to the...
Share