Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.256 IF 4.256
  • IF 5-year value: 4.819 IF 5-year 4.819
  • CiteScore value: 4.10 CiteScore 4.10
  • SNIP value: 1.412 SNIP 1.412
  • SJR value: 2.023 SJR 2.023
  • IPP value: 3.97 IPP 3.97
  • h5-index value: 58 h5-index 58
  • Scimago H index value: 99 Scimago H index 99
Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-160
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 04 Apr 2018

Research article | 04 Apr 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa), part 2: future projections

Inne Vanderkelen1, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig2, and Wim Thiery1,3 Inne Vanderkelen et al.
  • 1Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
  • 2Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
  • 3Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract. Lake Victoria, the second largest freshwater lake in the world, is one of the major sources of the Nile River. The outlet to the Nile is controlled by two hydropower dams of which the allowed discharge is dictated by the Agreed Curve, an equation relating outflow to lake level. Some regional climate models project a decrease of precipitation and an increase of evaporation over Lake Victoria, with potential important implications for its water balance and resulting level. Yet, nothing is known about the potential consequences of climate change for the water balance of Lake Victoria. In this second part of a two-paper series, we feed a new water balance model for Lake Victoria presented in the first part with climate simulations available through the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa framework. Our results reveal that most regional climate models are not capable of giving a realistic representation of the water balance of Lake Victoria. Therefore we applied two bias correction methods, resulting in both cases in a closed water balance. Our results reveal that for two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5), the decrease in precipitation over the lake and an increase in evaporation are compensated by an increase in basin precipitation leading to more inflow. The future lake level projections show that the outflow scenario and not the emission scenario is the main controlling factor of the future water level evolution. Moreover, inter-model uncertainties are larger than emission scenario uncertainties. The comparison of four different outflow scenarios for the future uncovers that the only sustainable outflow scenario is regulating outflow following the Agreed Curve. The associated outflow encompasses however large uncertainties ranging up to 177%, which are important to take into account regarding future hydropower generation and water availability downstream.

Download & links
Inne Vanderkelen et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: final response (author comments only)
Status: final response (author comments only)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Login for Authors/Editors] [Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Inne Vanderkelen et al.
Inne Vanderkelen et al.
Viewed
Total article views: 437 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
293 134 10 437 11 13
  • HTML: 293
  • PDF: 134
  • XML: 10
  • Total: 437
  • BibTeX: 11
  • EndNote: 13
Views and downloads (calculated since 04 Apr 2018)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 04 Apr 2018)
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 437 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 433 with geography defined and 4 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited
Saved
No saved metrics found.
Discussed
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 21 Sep 2018
Publications Copernicus
Special issue
Download
Short summary
Lake Victoria is the second largest freshwater lake in the world and one of the major sources of the Nile River, which is controlled by two hydropower dams. In this paper we estimate the potential consequences of climate change for future water level fluctuations of Lake Victoria. Our results reveal that the operating strategies at the dam are the main controlling factors of future lake levels and that regional climate simulations used in the projections encompass large uncertainties.
Lake Victoria is the second largest freshwater lake in the world and one of the major sources of...
Citation
Share