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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-221
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 18 May 2018

Research article | 18 May 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Assessing water supply capacity in a complex river basin under climate change using the logistic eco-engineering decision scaling framework

Daeha Kim1, Jong Ahn Chun1, and Si-Jung Choi2 Daeha Kim et al.
  • 1APEC Climate Center, Busan, 48058, South Korea
  • 2Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Gyeonggi-do, 10223, South Korea

Abstract. Climate change is a global stressor that can undermine water management policies developed under the assumption of stationary climate, necessitating robust solutions to reducing the risk of system failures for uncertain future climates. While the response-surface-based assessments have provided convenience to explore responsive behaviours of expected system performance to climatic stresses, they were unable to predict the risk of system failures from individual climate projections. In this study, we proposed to use the logistic regressions for evaluating the probability of non-successive outcomes against pre-defined thresholds directly from climate projections, which may be more informative for decision making processes than the expected performances. As a case study, water supply and ecological reliabilities within a large river basin were assessed by combining the eco-engineering decision scaling framework and the logistic regressions. The impact assessment for the South Korean river basin showed that optimal water supply performance at the sub-basins were expected to be satisfactory for the upcoming 20 years of 2020–2039, while the human-demand-only operations could lower the ecological reliabilities. When considering ecological demands in water operations to reduce the ecological vulnerabilities, the stakeholders should accept increasing risks of unsatisfactory supply at the sub-basins with low demands. This study highlights that binary conversions of the performance metrics from the stress tests allow users to measure the risks of system failures varying across sub-components and standpoints with minimal computational costs.

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Daeha Kim et al.
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Short summary
In this study, we proposed an approach to gauging the risks of non-successful water supply and environmental reliabilities varying across a large river basin. The proposed method enables to measure system robustness to climate change with consideration of conflicting stakeholders’ interests. We simply converted the expected system performance under climate stresses into binary outcomes, and applied them to the logistic regressions. A case study for a South Korean river basin is provided.
In this study, we proposed an approach to gauging the risks of non-successful water supply and...
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