Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.256 IF 4.256
  • IF 5-year value: 4.819 IF 5-year 4.819
  • CiteScore value: 4.10 CiteScore 4.10
  • SNIP value: 1.412 SNIP 1.412
  • SJR value: 2.023 SJR 2.023
  • IPP value: 3.97 IPP 3.97
  • h5-index value: 58 h5-index 58
  • Scimago H index value: 99 Scimago H index 99
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-255
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-255
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 16 Jul 2018

Research article | 16 Jul 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Less Frequent but More Severe Hydrological Drought Events Emerge at 1.5 and 2 °C Warming Levels over the Wudinghe Watershed in northern China

Yang Jiao and Xing Yuan Yang Jiao and Xing Yuan
  • Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

Abstract. Assessment of changes in hydrological droughts at specific warming levels (e.g., 1.5 or 2°C) is important for an adaptive water resources management with consideration of the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most studies focused on the response of drought frequency to the warming and neglected other drought characteristics including severity. By using a semiarid watershed in northern China (i.e., Wudinghe) as an example, here we show less frequent but more severe hydrological drought events emerge at both 1.5 and 2°C warming levels. We used meteorological forcings from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models with four representative concentration pathways, to drive a newly developed land surface hydrological model to simulate streamflow, and analyzed historical and future hydrological drought characteristics based on the Standardized Streamflow Index. The Wudinghe watershed will reach the 1.5°C (2°C) warming level around 2006–2025 (2019–2038), with an increase of precipitation by 6% (9%) and runoff by 17% (27%) as compared to the baseline period (1986–2005). This results in a drop of drought frequency by 26% (27%). However, the drought severity will rise dramatically by 63% (30%), which is mainly caused by the increased variability of precipitation and evapotranspiration. The climate models contribute to more than 82% of total uncertainties in the future projection of hydrological droughts. This study suggests that different aspects of hydrological droughts should be carefully investigated when assessing the impact of 1.5 and 2°C warming.

Yang Jiao and Xing Yuan
Interactive discussion
Status: final response (author comments only)
Status: final response (author comments only)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Login for Authors/Editors] [Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Yang Jiao and Xing Yuan
Yang Jiao and Xing Yuan
Viewed  
Total article views: 344 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
277 62 5 344 12 12
  • HTML: 277
  • PDF: 62
  • XML: 5
  • Total: 344
  • BibTeX: 12
  • EndNote: 12
Views and downloads (calculated since 16 Jul 2018)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 16 Jul 2018)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 336 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 334 with geography defined and 2 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 16 Jan 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
This paper projects future changes in drought characteristics under 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels over a semiarid watershed based on hydro-climate simulations. Despite large uncertainties from climate models, we find that less frequent but more severe hydrological drought events would occur in the near future, suggesting that different aspects of hydrological droughts should be carefully investigated when assessing the impact of global warming.
This paper projects future changes in drought characteristics under 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels...
Citation
Share