Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.256 IF 4.256
  • IF 5-year value: 4.819 IF 5-year 4.819
  • CiteScore value: 4.10 CiteScore 4.10
  • SNIP value: 1.412 SNIP 1.412
  • SJR value: 2.023 SJR 2.023
  • IPP value: 3.97 IPP 3.97
  • h5-index value: 58 h5-index 58
  • Scimago H index value: 99 Scimago H index 99
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-286
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-286
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 12 Jul 2018

Research article | 12 Jul 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of this manuscript was accepted for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS) and is expected to appear here in due course.

Variations of future precipitations in Poyang Lake Watershed under the global warming using a spatiotemporally distributed downscaling model

Ling Zhang1, Xiaoling Chen1,2, Jianzhong Lu1, and Dong Liang1 Ling Zhang et al.
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
  • 2Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China

Abstract. Traditional statistic downscaling methods are processed on independent stations, which ignores spatial correlations and spatiotemporal heterogeneity. In this study, a spatiotemporally distributed downscaling model (STDDM) was developed. The method interpolated observations and GCMs (Global Climate Models) simulations to continual finer grids; then created relationship, respectively for each grid at each time. We applied the STDDM in precipitation downscaling of Poyang Lake Watershed using MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model3), with an acceptant uncertainty of ≤4.9%, and created future precipitation changes from 1998 to 2100 (1998–2012 in the historical and 2013–2100 in RCP8.5 scenario). The precipitation changes showed increasing heterogeneities in temporal and spatial distribution under the future climate warming. In the temporal pattern, the wet season precipitation increased with change rate (CR)=7.33mm/10a (11.66mm/K) while the dry season precipitations decreased with CR=−0.92mm/10a (−4.31mm/K). The extreme precipitation frequency and intensity were enhanced with CR=0.49 days/10a and 7.2mm•day-1/10a respectively. In the spatial pattern, precipitations in wet or dry season showed an uneven change rate over the watershed, and the wet or dry area exhibited a wetter or drier condition in the wet or dry season. Analysis with temperature increases showed precipitation changes appeared significantly (p<0.05 and R0.56) correlated to climate warming. The results implicated the increasing risk of flood-droughts under global warming and were a reference for water balance analysis and water resource planting.

Ling Zhang et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Ling Zhang et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 401 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
339 58 4 401 17 8 10
  • HTML: 339
  • PDF: 58
  • XML: 4
  • Total: 401
  • Supplement: 17
  • BibTeX: 8
  • EndNote: 10
Views and downloads (calculated since 12 Jul 2018)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 12 Jul 2018)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 378 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 372 with geography defined and 6 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 16 Jan 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
A spatiotemporally distributed downscaling model was developed. The method was applied to Poyang Lake Watershed to analyze the precipitation changes in the 21th centry. The results showed increasing heterogeneities in temporal and spatial distribution under the future climate warming. Analysis with temperature increases showed precipitation changes appeared significantly correlated to climate warming. The results implicated the increasing risk of flood-droughts under global warming.
A spatiotemporally distributed downscaling model was developed. The method was applied to Poyang...
Citation
Share