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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-380
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-380
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 12 Dec 2018

Research article | 12 Dec 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Copula and ARMA based study of controlled outflow at Farakka barrage

Uttam Singh1, Venkappayya R. Desai2, Pramod K. Sharma1, and Chandra S. P. Ojha1 Uttam Singh et al.
  • 1Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee – 247667
  • 2Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur – 721302

Abstract. In this study, 25 years mean monthly out flow discharge data of Farakka barrage was used (i.e., from 1949 to 1968). Farakka barrage is located between on Ganga River. Spatial and temporal variation in flow rate for any particular area is very common due to various meteorological and other factors existing in nature. But large variations in these factors cause extreme events (e. g., floods and droughts). Monthly outflow discharge for a particular critical month are predicted using statistical models (ARMA Model and Copula Model). Different Copulas (i.e., Normal, t, Frank, Clayton, Gumbel–Hoggard, Ali–Mikhail–Haq) are used for this purpose and the copula model is selected based on distribution functions (Normal distribution, Lognormal distribution, Extreme value type-1 distribution, Generalized Extreme value type, Gamma distribution, Weibull distribution, Exponential distribution). The distribution is selected based on the Mean square error (MSE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The model parameters were computed using the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation method.

Uttam Singh et al.
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Short summary
In this study, 25 years mean monthly out flow discharge data of Farakka barrage was used (i.e., from 1949 to 1968). Farakka barrage is located between on Ganga River. Spatial and temporal variation in flow rate for any particular area is very common due to various meteorological and other factors existing in nature.
In this study, 25 years mean monthly out flow discharge data of Farakka barrage was used (i.e.,...
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