Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.256 IF 4.256
  • IF 5-year value: 4.819 IF 5-year 4.819
  • CiteScore value: 4.10 CiteScore 4.10
  • SNIP value: 1.412 SNIP 1.412
  • SJR value: 2.023 SJR 2.023
  • IPP value: 3.97 IPP 3.97
  • h5-index value: 58 h5-index 58
  • Scimago H index value: 99 Scimago H index 99
Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-448
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 27 Sep 2018

Research article | 27 Sep 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming

Hongmei Xu1, Lüliu Liu1, Yong Wang2, Sheng Wang3, Ying Hao4, Jingjin Ma5, and Tong Jiang6,1 Hongmei Xu et al.
  • 1National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
  • 2Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing, 401147, China
  • 3Anhui Climate Center, Hefei, 230031, China
  • 4Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei, 230031, China
  • 5Beijing Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Beijing, 100089, China
  • 6Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

Abstract. To quantify climate change impact and difference on basin-scale river runoff under the limiting global warming thresholds of 1.5°C and 2.0°C, this study examined four river basins covering a wide hydroclimatic setting. We analyzed projected climate change in four basins, quantified climate change impact on annual and seasonal runoff based on the Soil Water Assessment Tool, and estimated the uncertainty constrained by the global circulation models (GCMs) structure and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). All statistics for the two basins located in northern China indicated generally warmer and wetter conditions, whereas the two basins located in southern China projected less warming and were inconsistent regarding annual precipitation change. The simulated changes in annual runoff were complex; however, there was no shift in seasonal runoff pattern. The 0.5°C global warming difference caused 0.7°C and 0.6°C warming in basins in northern and southern China, respectively. This led to projected precipitation increase by about 2% for the four basins, and to a decrease in simulated annual runoff of 8% and 1% in the Shiyang and Huaihe rivers, respectively, but to an increase of 4% in the Chaobai and Fujiang rivers. The uncertainty in projected annual temperature was dominated by the GCMs or the RCPs; however, that of precipitation was constrained mainly by the GCM. The 0.5°C difference decreased the uncertainty both in the annual precipitation projection and the annual and monthly runoff simulation.

Hongmei Xu et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 22 Nov 2018)
Status: open (until 22 Nov 2018)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Hongmei Xu et al.
Hongmei Xu et al.
Viewed
Total article views: 210 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
171 36 3 210 4 6
  • HTML: 171
  • PDF: 36
  • XML: 3
  • Total: 210
  • BibTeX: 4
  • EndNote: 6
Views and downloads (calculated since 27 Sep 2018)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 27 Sep 2018)
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 210 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 210 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited
Saved
No saved metrics found.
Discussed
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 20 Oct 2018
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
1.5 and 2 °C have become target in the discussion of climate change impacts. However, climate research is also challenged to provide more robust information on the impact of climate change at local and regional scales to assist the development of sound scientific adaptation and mitigation measures. This study assessed the impacts and differences of 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming on basin-scale river runoff by examining four river basins covering a wide hydroclimatic setting in China.
1.5 and 2 °C have become target in the discussion of climate change impacts. However, climate...
Citation
Share