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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 08 Nov 2018

Research article | 08 Nov 2018

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Estimating changes of temperatures and precipitation extremes in India using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution

Kishore Pangaluru1, Isabella Velicogna1,2, Tyler C. Sutterley1, Yara Mohajerani1, Enrico Ciraci1, Jyothi Sompalli3, and Vijaya Bhaskara Rao Saranga3 Kishore Pangaluru et al.
  • 1Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, 92697, USA
  • 2Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
  • 3Department of Physics, Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati, India

Abstract. Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation may give some of the largest significant societal and ecological impacts. For changes in the magnitude of extreme temperature and precipitation over India, we used a statistical model of generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV statistical distribution is a time-dependent distribution with different time scales of variability bounded by a precipitation, maximum (Tmax), and minimum (Tmin) temperature extremes and also assessed their possibility changes are evaluated and quantified over India is presented. The GEV-based method is applied on both precipitation and temperature extremes over India during the 20th and 21st centuries using multiple coupled climate models taking an interest in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and observational datasets. The regional means of historical warm extreme temperatures are 34.89, 36.42, and 38.14°C for three different (10, 20, and 50-year) periods, respectively; whereas the cold extreme mean temperatures are 7.75, 4.19, and −1.57°C. It indicates that 20th century cold extreme temperatures have relatively larger variations than the warm extremes. As for the future, the CMIP5 models of warm extreme regional mean values increase from 0.33 to 0.75°C in all return periods (10-, 20-, and 50-year periods), while in the case of cold extreme means values vary between 0.58 and 2.29°C. In the future, cold extreme values have a larger increasing rate over the northwest, northeast, some parts of north-central, and Inter Peninsula regions. The CRU precipitation extremes are larger than the historical extreme precipitation in all three (10, 20, and 50-year) return-periods.

Kishore Pangaluru et al.
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Kishore Pangaluru et al.
Kishore Pangaluru et al.
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Publications Copernicus
Short summary
The regional extreme mean temperature values increase moderately compared to the historical values at about 1.82 and 2.92 °C in the 50-year period under RCP6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Comparing the 10- to 50-year return periods, the warm extremes increase at about ~ 3 °C especially over the eastern and western regions of India. The effect of increasing radiative forcing under higher concentration pathways is larger on cold temperatures compared to warm extreme temperatures.
The regional extreme mean temperature values increase moderately compared to the historical...