Abstract. Salinization is a well-known problem in agricultural areas worldwide. For the last 20–30 years, rising salinity in the upper, unconfined aquifer has been observed in the Freepsumer Meer, a deep grassland area near the German North Sea coast. In order to investigate long-term development of soil salinity and water balance, the one-dimensional SWAP model was set up and calibrated for a soil column in the area, simulating water and salt balance at discrete depths for 1961–2099. The model setup involved a deep aquifer as the only source of salt through upward seepage since other sources were negligible. In the vertical salt transport equation, only dispersion and advection were included. Six different regional outputs of statistical downscaling methods (WETTREG, XDS), based on simulations of different GCMs (ECHAM5, ECHAM6, IPSL-CM5) driven by greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES-A2, SRES-B1) and concentration pathways (RCP45, RCP85), were used as scenarios. These comprised different rates of increasing surface temperature and essentially different trends in seasonal rainfall. The results of the model runs exhibit opposing salinity trends for topsoil and deeper layers: While the projections of some scenarios entail decreasing salinities near the soil surface, most of them project a rise in subsoil salinity with strongest trends of up to +0.9 mg cm⁻³ (100 a)⁻¹ at −65 cm. The results suggest that topsoil salinity trends are affected by the magnitude of winter rainfall trends while high subsoil salinity trends correspond to low winter rainfall and high summer temperature. Absolute salinity is high in scenarios of high-temperature and low-rainfall summers. How these projected trends affect the vegetation and thereby future land use will depend on the future management of groundwater levels in the area.