Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.256 IF 4.256
  • IF 5-year value: 4.819 IF 5-year
    4.819
  • CiteScore value: 4.10 CiteScore
    4.10
  • SNIP value: 1.412 SNIP 1.412
  • SJR value: 2.023 SJR 2.023
  • IPP value: 3.97 IPP 3.97
  • h5-index value: 58 h5-index 58
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 99 Scimago H
    index 99
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-634
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-634
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 11 Jan 2019

Research article | 11 Jan 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Climate change, re-/afforestation, and urbanisation impacts on evapotranspiration and streamflow in Europe

Adriaan J. Teuling1, Emile de Badts1, Femke A. Jansen1, Richard Fuchs2, Joost Buitink1, Anne J. Hoek van Dijke1,3,4, and Shannon Sterling5 Adriaan J. Teuling et al.
  • 1Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
  • 2Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Group of Land Use Change and Climate, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
  • 3Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Belvaux, Luxembourg
  • 4Laboratory of Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
  • 5Department of Earth Sciences, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada

Abstract. Since the 1950s, Europe has seen large shifts in climate and land cover. Previous assessments of past and future changes in evapotranspiration or streamflow have either focussed on land use/cover or climate contributions, or have focussed on individual catchments under specific climate conditions. Here, we aim to understand how decadal changes in climate (e.g., precipitation, temperature) and land use (e.g., de-/afforestation, urbanization) have impacted the amount and distribution of water resources availability across Europe since the 1950s. To this end, we simulate the distribution of green and blue water fluxes at high-resolution (1 × 1 km) by combining (a) a steady-state Budyko model for water balance partitioning constrained by long-term (lysimeter) observations across different land-use types, (b) a novel decadal high-resolution historical land use reconstruction, and (c) gridded observations of key meteorological variables. The continental-scale patterns in the simulations agree well with coarser-scale observation-based estimates of evapotranspiration, and also with observed changes in streamflow from small basins across Europe. We find that strong shifts in the continental-scale patterns of evapotranspiration and streamflow have occured from 1950 to 2010. In Sweden, for example, increased precipitation dominates effects of large scale re- and afforestation leading to increases in both streamflow and evapotranspiration. In most of the Mediterrenean, decreased precipitation combines with increased forest cover and potential evapotranspiration to reduce streamflow. In spite of local and regional scale complexity, the Europe-wide net contribution of land use, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes to changes in ET is similar with around ~ 40 km3/y, equivalent to the discharge of a large river. For streamflow, changes in precipitation dominate land use and potential evapotranspiration contributions with ~ 90 km3/y compared to ~ 45 km3/y. Locally, increased forest cover and urbanisation have lead to significant decreases and increases of available streamflow.

Adriaan J. Teuling et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: final response (author comments only)
Status: final response (author comments only)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Login for Authors/Editors] [Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Adriaan J. Teuling et al.
Adriaan J. Teuling et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 592 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
434 154 4 592 7 6
  • HTML: 434
  • PDF: 154
  • XML: 4
  • Total: 592
  • BibTeX: 7
  • EndNote: 6
Views and downloads (calculated since 11 Jan 2019)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 11 Jan 2019)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 278 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 273 with geography defined and 5 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 25 Mar 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Over the past decades, changes in land use and climate over Europe have impacted the so-called blue water flux, the average flow of water flowing through rivers and reservoirs. We quantify these changes using a simple but widely-tested modelling approach constrained by observations of lysimeters across Europe. Results show that the contribution of land use to changes in blue water fluxes are of the same order as changes in climate, showing that impacts of land use changes cannot be neglected.
Over the past decades, changes in land use and climate over Europe have impacted the so-called...
Citation