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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-175
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-175
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 06 Jun 2019

Submitted as: research article | 06 Jun 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Evaluating robustness of dynamic reservoir management under diverse climatic uncertainties: Application to the Boryeong Reservoir in South Korea

Kuk-Hyun Ahn1 and Young-Il Moon2 Kuk-Hyun Ahn and Young-Il Moon
  • 1Assistant Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kongju National University, Cheon-an, South Korea
  • 2Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul, South Korea

Abstract. The implications of forecast-based reservoir operation have been considered to be innovative approaches to water management. Despite the advantages of forecast-based operations, climate-related uncertainty may discourage the utilization of forecast-based reservoir operation in water resources management. To mitigate this concern, a systematic evaluation proves helpful. This study presents an evaluation framework for reservoir management under a variety of potential climate conditions. In particular, this study uses Monte Carlo simulations to quantify the robustness of the forecast-based operation in a scenario of degraded ability of forecast skill, and demonstrates a new performance metric for robustness. This framework is described in a case study for a water supply facility in South Korea. To illustrate the framework, this study also proposes dynamic reservoir operation rules for our case study, utilizing seasonal climate information and a real-option instrument from an interconnected water system. Results provide system robustness evaluated over a wide range of defined uncertainties related to climate change. Results also suggest that the dynamic operation management adopted in this study can substantially improve reservoir performance for future climates compared to current operation management. This analysis may serve as a useful guideline to adopt dynamic management of reservoir operation for water supply systems in South Korea and other regions.

Kuk-Hyun Ahn and Young-Il Moon
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Kuk-Hyun Ahn and Young-Il Moon
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Short summary
The implications of forecast-based reservoir operation have been considered to be innovative approaches to water management. Despite the advantages, climate-related uncertainty may discourage the utilization of forecast-based reservoir operation in water resources management. To mitigate this concern, this study presents an evaluation framework under a variety of potential climate conditions. Results provide system robustness evaluated over diverse uncertainties related to climate change.
The implications of forecast-based reservoir operation have been considered to be innovative...
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