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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-223
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-223
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 24 May 2019

Submitted as: research article | 24 May 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Regional ensemble forecast for early warning system over small Apennine catchments on Central Italy

Rossella Ferretti1,2, Annalina Lombardi1, Barbara Tomassetti1, Lorenzo Sangelantoni1, Valentina Colaiuda1, Vincenzo Mazzarella1, Ida Maiello1, Marco Verdecchia2, and Gianluca Redaelli1,2 Rossella Ferretti et al.
  • 1CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
  • 2Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy

Abstract. The weather forecasts for precipitation have considerably improved in recent years thanks to the increase of computational power. This allows to use both a higher spatial resolutions and the newly developed parameterization schemes for representing sub-grid scale physical processes. However, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can impact on the response of hydrological models. To the aim of considering the uncertainties in the precipitation forecast and how they propagate in the hydrological model, an ensemble approach is investigated. A meteo-hydro ensemble system is built to forecast events in a complex orography terrain where catchments of different size are present. In this context, the meteo-hydrological forecast system is implemented and tested for a severe hydrological event occurred over Central Italy on November 15, 2017. During this period, a flash flood hit the Abruzzo region causing precipitation up to 200 mm/24 hours and producing damages with a high impact on social and economic activities.The newly developed meteo-hydro ensemble system is compared with a high resolution deterministic forecast and with the observations over the same area, showing a very good response. In addition, the ensemble allows for an estimation of the predictability of the event a few days in advance and of the uncertainty of this flood. Although the modelling framework is implemented on the basins of Abruzzo region, it is portable and applicable to other areas.

Rossella Ferretti et al.
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Rossella Ferretti et al.
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Short summary
In the recent years weather Ensemble Prediction Systems received a massive scientific interest. These systems allow to quantify uncertainty and extreme events occurrence probability seen as essential components of the forecast. In this work Authors propose an integrated meteo-hydro ensemble, with a probabilistic approach applied on both atmospheric and hydrological model forecasts. This work represents a portable operational modeling chain for regional-scale flood early warning.
In the recent years weather Ensemble Prediction Systems received a massive scientific interest....
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