Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.936 IF 4.936
  • IF 5-year value: 5.615 IF 5-year
    5.615
  • CiteScore value: 4.94 CiteScore
    4.94
  • SNIP value: 1.612 SNIP 1.612
  • IPP value: 4.70 IPP 4.70
  • SJR value: 2.134 SJR 2.134
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 107 Scimago H
    index 107
  • h5-index value: 63 h5-index 63
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-249
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-249
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 16 Jul 2019

Submitted as: research article | 16 Jul 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Regional scenarios of change over Canada: future climate projections

Zilefac Elvis Asong1,2, Mohamed Elshamy1, Daniel Princz1,3, Howard Wheater1, John Pomeroy2,1, Alain Pietroniro1,2,3, and Alex Cannon4 Zilefac Elvis Asong et al.
  • 1Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, 11 Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK, Canada S7N 3H5
  • 2Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, 121 Research Drive, Saskatoon, SK, Canada S7N 3C8
  • 3Environment and Climate Change Canada, 11 Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK, Canada S7N 3H5
  • 4Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, BC V8W 2Y2, Victoria, Canada

Abstract. This analysis documents projected changes in daily precipitation and temperature characteristics over Canada based on a 15-member ensemble which had been downscaled using the Canadian Regional Climate Model–CanRCM4 at 50 km resolution by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. In this study, the historical CanRCM4 simulations are first compared against observations for validation purposes. Then, a multivariate bias correction algorithm is applied to the CanRCM4 outputs to adjust the data against the EU WATCH Forcing Data ERA-Interim reanalysis (WFDEI). We analyze changes in mean and extremes for two 30-year non-overlapping future periods: 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 relative to 1979–2008. The results indicate that daily mean precipitation is projected to increase over Canada, with larger increases expected in the 2080s. However, decreases are projected in summer precipitation over the Canadian Prairies by the year 2100. Mean air temperature is projected to intensify towards the northern high latitude regions, particularly in the winter season. Precipitation and temperature extreme events may increase more than the mean. By examining the behavior of precipitation distribution tails, the mean of the probability distributions of wet extremes over the Saskatchewan (SRB) and Mackenzie River basins (MRB) is projected to shift to the right with global warming. For temperature extremes, minimum temperature may warm faster compared to daily maximum temperatures, particularly in the winter and towards the Arctic region.

Zilefac Elvis Asong et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 10 Sep 2019)
Status: open (until 10 Sep 2019)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Zilefac Elvis Asong et al.
Zilefac Elvis Asong et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 267 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
193 73 1 267 12 2 3
  • HTML: 193
  • PDF: 73
  • XML: 1
  • Total: 267
  • Supplement: 12
  • BibTeX: 2
  • EndNote: 3
Views and downloads (calculated since 16 Jul 2019)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 16 Jul 2019)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 204 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 204 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 24 Aug 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Citation