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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 29 Jul 2019

Submitted as: research article | 29 Jul 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Application of logistic regression to simulate the influence of rainfall genesis on storm overflow operation: a probabilistic approach

Bartosz Szeląg1, Roman Suligowski2, Jan Studziński3, and Francesco De Paola4 Bartosz Szeląg et al.
  • 1Department of Geotechnics and Water Engineering, Kielce University of Technology, 25-314 Kielce, Poland
  • 2Department of Hydrology and Geo-Information, Jan Kochanowski University, 25-406 Kielce, Poland
  • 3Centre for Computer Science Applications in Environmental Engineering, Systems Research Institute Polish Academy of Sciences, 01-447 Warszawa, Poland
  • 4Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, via Claudio 21, Napoli 80125, Italy

Abstract. One of the key parameters constituting the basis for the assessment of the operation of stormwater systems is the annual number of storm overflows. Since uncontrolled overflow discharges are a source of pollution washed away from the surface of the catchment area, which leads to an imbalance in the receivers, there is a need for their prognosis and potential reduction.

This paper proposes an innovative probabilistic model to simulate the number of storm overflow discharges, which takes into account atmospheric circulation and related rainfall in the research area (the city of Kielce located in the central part of Poland). The developed model consists of two independent elements. The first element is the model of logistic regression, which can be used to model storm overflow discharge resulting from the occurrence of a single rainfall episode. The paper confirmed that storm overflow discharge can be modeled on the basis of data on the total amount of rainfall and its duration. An alternative approach was also proposed, in which the possibility of forecasting overflow discharge only on the basis of the average rainfall intensity was demonstrated, which is a big simplification in simulation of the phenomenon under study in comparison with the works published so far in this scope. It is worth noting that the coefficients determined in logit models have a physical interpretation and these models have a universal character, which is why they can be easily adapted to other examined catchment areas. The second element of the model is a synthetic precipitation generator, in which the simulation of rainfall takes into account its genesis resulting from various processes and phenomena taking place in the troposphere. This approach makes it possible to take into account the stochastic nature of rainfall also in relation to the annual number of events.

Calculations made in the paper on the example of the examined catchment allowed to assess the influence of rainfall characteristics (depth, intensity, duration) of different genesis on the probability of storm overflow discharge. On the basis of the obtained results, the range of variability of average rainfall intensity was determined, which determines the discharge by storm overflow, as well as the annual number of discharges resulting from the occurrence of rain of different genesis. The obtained results enable their practical implementation in the assessment of storm overflows only on the basis of knowledge concerning the genetic type of rainfall. They can be used to develop warning systems, in which information on the predicted rainfall genesis is a component of the assessment of the operation of the stormwater system and the facilities located on it.

Bartosz Szeląg et al.
Bartosz Szeląg et al.
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Publications Copernicus
Short summary
Method for linking releases of a storm overflow with the precipitation forming mechanism, depending on an air circulation, was presented. The logit model was used to simulate overflow releases and a rainfall generator accounting for forming mechanism was used for forecasting. It was found that the logit model is universal and can be applied to a catchment with diverse geographical characteristics and that the precipitation forming mechanism has an impact on the operation of the storm overflow.
Method for linking releases of a storm overflow with the precipitation forming mechanism,...