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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-335
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-335
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 08 Jul 2019

Research article | 08 Jul 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: Proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy

Ana I. Ayala1,2, Simone Moras1, and Don C. Pierson1 Ana I. Ayala et al.
  • 1Department of Ecology and Genetics, Limnology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 752 36, Sweden
  • 2Departmentof Applied Physics, Nonlinearity and Climate Group, University of Geneva, Geneva, CH-1211, Switzerland

Abstract. This paper, as a part of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), assesses the impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken (Sweden). The GOTM one-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate water temperature when using ISIMIP2b bias-corrected climate model projections as input. These projections have a daily time step, while lake model simulations are often forced at hourly or shorter time steps. Therefore, it was necessary to first test the ability of GOTM to simulate Lake Erken water temperature using daily vs hourly meteorological forcing data. In order to do this three data sets were used to force the model: (1) hourly measured data; (2) daily average data derived from the first data set and; (3) synthetic hourly data created from the daily data set using Generalized Regression Artificial Neural Network methods. This last data set is developed using a method that could also be applied to the daily time step ISIMIP scenarios to obtain hourly model input if needed. The lake model was shown to accurately simulate Lake Erken water temperature when forced with either daily or synthetic hourly data. Long-term simulations forced with daily or synthetic hourly meteorological data suggest that by 2099 the lake will undergo clear changes in thermal structure, for RCP 2.6 surface water temperature was projected to increase from 0.87 to 1.48 °C and from 0.69 to 1.20 °C when the lake model was forced at daily and hourly resolutions respectively, and for RCP 6.0 these increases were projected to range from 1.58 to 3.58 °C and from 1.19 to 2.65 °C when the lake model was also forced at daily and hourly resolutions. Changes in lake stability were projected to increase significantly and the stratification duration was projected to be longer by 9 to 16 days and from 7 to 13 days under RCP 2.6 scenario and from 20 to 33 days and from 17 to 27 under RCP 6.0 scenario for daily and hourly resolutions. Model trends were very similar when using either the daily or synthetic hourly forcing, suggesting that the original climate model projections at a daily time step can be sufficient for the purpose of simulating water temperature in the lake sector in ISIMIP.

Ana I. Ayala et al.
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Data sets

GOTM water temperature simulations forced at different frequency in the meteorological inputs in Lake Erken (Sweden) A. I. Ayala, D. C. Pierson, and S. Moras https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.ace98c3bc72b44f1834a58ec8b3af310

GOTM simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken drived by daily and synthetic hourly ISIMIP projections A. I. Ayala, D. C. Pierson, and S. Moras https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.2b4cfe0f02bf4375bcd0b62e45c61b19

Ana I. Ayala et al.
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Latest update: 19 Jul 2019
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Short summary
This study assesses the impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken. For that, GOTM was used to simulate water temperature driven by meteorological scenarios supplied by ISIMIP. First, we tested the ability of GOTM to simulated water temperature at different frequencies in the meteorological inputs. Second, daily ISIMIP meteorological scenarios were disaggregated into hourly time steps and assessed the effects of climate change on lake thermal structure.
This study assesses the impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure...
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