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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-389
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-389
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 22 Aug 2019

Submitted as: research article | 22 Aug 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

A novel data-driven analytical framework on hierarchical water allocation integrated with blue and virtual water transfers

Liming Yao1,2, Zhongwen Xu1, Huijuan Wu3, and Xudong Chen1 Liming Yao et al.
  • 1Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China
  • 2State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610064, China
  • 3Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 469A Bukit Timah Road, 259770, Singapore

Abstract. This study proposes a novel data-driven analytical framework to determine optimal allocation and conjunctive strategies of blue and virtual water transfers in the presence of different hydrological and economic conditions. Due to the water scarcity and uneven distribution, a Stackelberg–Nash–Harsanyi equilibrium model is developed to cope with the hierarchical conflict between the water affairs bureau and multiple water usage sectors. Results show that coalitional strategy of blue and virtual water transfers can substantially save water and improve utilization efficiency without harming sectors' benefits and increasing ecological stresses. Under various polices, we use data-driven analysis to simulate hydrological and economic parameters, such as available water, crop import price, water market price etc. Different results obtained through adjusting hydrological and economic parameters show that the optimal allocation and transfer strategy is more sensitive to hydrological factor instead of economic factor. Moreover, the results prove that conjunctive blue/virtual water transfers can response to market fluctuation. Ultimately, the proposed framework can achieve a sustainable management for physical and virtual water supply system under future hydrological and economic uncertainty.

Liming Yao et al.
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Short summary
Results show that coalitional strategy of blue and virtual water transfers can substantially save water and improve utilization efficiency without harming sectors' benefits and increasing ecological stresses. Under various polices, we use data-driven analysis to simulate hydrological and economic parameters, such as available water, crop import price, water market price etc. Different water allocation and transfer results are obtained through adjusting hydrological and economic parameters.
Results show that coalitional strategy of blue and virtual water transfers can substantially...
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