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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-643
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-643
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 06 Feb 2020

Submitted as: research article | 06 Feb 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asia monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming

Jeong-Bae Kim and Deg-Hyo Bae Jeong-Bae Kim and Deg-Hyo Bae
  • Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, 05006, Korea

Abstract. The changes in hydroclimatic extremes are assessed over the Asia monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming targets of global mean temperature above preindustrial levels based on a representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. The subregions in this domain are defined by the Köppen climate classification method to identify regional climate characteristics. The change patterns of long-term hydroclimatic mean and hydroclimatic extreme among subregions are compared based on the multimodel ensemble (MME) of selected five global climate models (GCMs). Each GCM is bias corrected and then used as a meteorological forcing for a hydrological model. To simulate how the hydrologic system responds to 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming targets, we select the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. The results of temperature extremes show significant change patterns over all climate zones. As the globe warms, the increasing warm extremes and the decreasing cold extremes with a high robustness occur more frequently over Asia. Meanwhile, changes in precipitation and runoff averages (and low runoff extremes) show large spatial variations in change patterns with little robustness based on intermodel agreement. Global warming is expected to significantly intensify maximum precipitation extremes in all climate zones. Regardless of regional climate characteristics, this behavior is expected to be enhanced under 2.0 °C compare to 1.5 °C warming scenario and cause the likelihood of flood risk. The spatial extent and magnitude of change patterns in runoff are modulated by those of change patterns in precipitation. More importantly, an extra 0.5 °C of global warming also leads to amplified change signals and more robust change patterns in hydroclimatic extremes, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. The results of this study demonstrate that the clear changes in regional hydroclimatic extremes under warmer conditions over Asia, and hydroclimatic sensitivities differ based on regional climate characteristics.

Jeong-Bae Kim and Deg-Hyo Bae

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Jeong-Bae Kim and Deg-Hyo Bae

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Short summary
We examine hydroclimatic extremes for different climate zones in Asia in response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming. Our results indicate that significant changes in regional temeprature and high precipitation (and runoff) extremes under warmer conditions over Asia. An extra 0.5 °C warming will lead to enhance regional hydroclimatic extremes especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. However, it's sensitivities differ according to hydroclimatic variables and regional climate characteristics.
We examine hydroclimatic extremes for different climate zones in Asia in response to 1.5 and...
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