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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 10 Jan 2020

Submitted as: research article | 10 Jan 2020

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Conditional simulation of surface rainfall fields using modified phase annealing

Jieru Yan1, András Bárdossy2, Sebastian Hörning3, and Tao Tao1 Jieru Yan et al.
  • 1College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
  • 2Institute of Modeling Hydraulic and Environmental Systems, Department of Hydrology and Geohydrology, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
  • 3Centre for Natural Gas, Faculty of Engineering, Architecture and Information Technology, the University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia

Abstract. The accuracy of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) over a certain region and period is of vital importance across multiple domains and disciplines. However, due to the intricate tempo-spatial variability and the intermittent nature of precipitation, it is challenging to obtain QPE with adequate accuracy. This paper aims at simulating rainfall fields honoring both the local constraints subject by the point-wise rain-gauge observations and the global constraints subject by the field measurement from weather radar. The employed conditional simulation method is the modified phase annealing (PA), which is practically an evolvement of the traditional simulated annealing (SA). Yet, unlike SA which implements perturbations in the spatial field, PA implements perturbations in the Fourier space, making it superior to SA in many aspects. The modification of PA is reflected in two aspects. First, taking advantage of the global characteristic of PA, the method is only used to deal with global constraints, and the local ones are handed over to residual kriging. Second, except for the system temperature, the number of perturbed phases is also annealed during the simulation process, making the influence of the perturbation more global at initial phases. The impact of the perturbation decreases gradually as the number of the perturbed phases decreases. The proposed method is used to simulate the rainfall field for a 30-min-event using different scenarios: with and without integrating the uncertainty of the radar-indicated rainfall pattern and with different objective functions.

Jieru Yan et al.
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Jieru Yan et al.
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Publications Copernicus
Short summary
For applications such as flood forecasting of urban- or town-scale, distributed hydrological modeling, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) with enough accuracy and high resolutions is the most important driving factor and thus the focus of this paper. Considering the fact that rain gauges are sparse but accurate; radar-based precipitation estimates are inaccurate but densely distributed, to obtain accurate QPEs with high resolution, we are merging the two types of data intellectually.
For applications such as flood forecasting of urban- or town-scale, distributed hydrological...