Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.936 IF 4.936
  • IF 5-year value: 5.615 IF 5-year
    5.615
  • CiteScore value: 4.94 CiteScore
    4.94
  • SNIP value: 1.612 SNIP 1.612
  • IPP value: 4.70 IPP 4.70
  • SJR value: 2.134 SJR 2.134
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 107 Scimago H
    index 107
  • h5-index value: 63 h5-index 63
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-71
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-71
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 25 Mar 2020

Submitted as: research article | 25 Mar 2020

Review status
This preprint is currently under review for the journal HESS.

Specific Climate Classification for Mediterranean Hydrology and Future Evolution Under Med-CORDEX RCM Scenarios

Antoine Allam1,2, Roger Moussa2, Wajdi Najem1, and Claude Bocquillon1 Antoine Allam et al.
  • 1CREEN, Saint-Joseph University, Beirut, 1107 2050, Lebanon
  • 2LISAH, Univ. Montpellier, INRAE, IRD, SupAgro, Montpellier, France

Abstract. The Mediterranean is one of the most sensitive regions to anthropogenic and climatic changes mostly affecting its water resources and related practices. With multiple studies raising serious concerns of climate shifts and aridity expansion in the region, this one aims to establish a new high resolution classification for hydrology purposes based on Mediterranean specific climate indices. This classification is useful in following up hydrological (water resources management, floods, droughts, etc.), and ecohydrological applications such as Mediterranean agriculture like olive cultivation and other environmental practices. The proposed approach includes the use of classic climatic indices and the definition of new climatic indices mainly precipitation seasonality index Is or evapotranspiration threshold SPET both in line with river flow regimes, a Principal Component Analysis to reduce the number of indices, K-Means classification to distribute them into classes and finally the construction of a decision tree based on the distances to classes kernels to reproduce the classification without having to repeat the whole process. The classification was set and validated by WorldClim-2 at 1-km high resolution gridded data for the 1970–2000 baseline period and 144 stations data over 30 to 120 years, both at monthly time steps. Climatic classes coincided with a geographical distribution in the Mediterranean ranging from the most seasonal and dry class 1 in the south to the least seasonal and most humid class 5 in the North, showing up the climatic continuity from one place to another and enhancing the visibility of change trends. The MED-CORDEX ALADIN and CCLM historical and projected data at 12-km and 50-km resolution simulated under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the 2070–2100 period served to assess the climate change impact on this classification by superimposing the projected changes on the baseline grid based classification. RCP scenarios are increasing seasonality index Is by +80 % and aridity index IArid by +60 % in the North and IArid by +10 % without Is change in the South, hence causing the wet seasons shortening and river regimes modification with the migration North of winter moderate and extreme winter regimes instead of early spring regimes. ALADIN and CCLM RCM models have demonstrated an evolution of the Mediterranean region towards arid climate. The classes located to the north are slowly evolving towards moderate coastal classes which might affect hydrologic regimes due to shorter humid seasons and earlier snowmelts. These scenarios might look favourable for Mediterranean cultivation however, the expected impact on water resources and flow regimes will sure expand and directly hit ecosystems, food, health and tourism as risk is interconnected between domains. This kind of classification might be reproduced at the global scale, using same or other climatic indices specific for each region highlighting their physiographic characteristics and hydrological response.

Antoine Allam et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: open (until 20 May 2020)
Status: open (until 20 May 2020)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Antoine Allam et al.

Antoine Allam et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 118 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
92 24 2 118 0 1
  • HTML: 92
  • PDF: 24
  • XML: 2
  • Total: 118
  • BibTeX: 0
  • EndNote: 1
Views and downloads (calculated since 25 Mar 2020)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 25 Mar 2020)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 56 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 55 with geography defined and 1 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Saved

No saved metrics found.

Discussed

No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 03 Apr 2020
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
With serious concerns of global change rising in the Mediterranean, we established a new climatic classification to follow up hydrological and ecohydrological activities. The classification coincided with a geographical distribution ranging from the most seasonal and dry class in the South to the least seasonal and most humid in the North. RCM scenarios showed that northern classes are evolving to southern with shorter humid seasons and earlier snowmelt which might affect hydrologic regimes.
With serious concerns of global change rising in the Mediterranean, we established a new...
Citation